On 26 June, Nike is sponsoring an event where Faith Kipyegon, the current women’s world record holder for the mile (1609M) and 1500M, will make a dedicated attempt to be the first woman to run a mile in under four minutes.
Similar to the sub-2:00 marathon attempts for Eliud Kipchoge, Nike is doing a few things to maximize Kipyegon’s chances of breaking this barrier, including specially designed clothes and shoes, and a group of pacers.
Will she break the mark? Her current world record for the mile stands at 4:07.64 so she needs to run 7.65 seconds faster in order to break 4:00. When someone is already that fast at that distance, 7.65 seconds is a lot of time. Specifically, it’s a little over 3% faster.
The ratified world record when Kipchoge ran the Ineos 1:59 Challenge was his own 2:01:39. To go under two hours, he needed to run about 1.4% faster.
Kipyegon’s 1500M world record time is 3:49.04. She would need to cover the remaining 109M in 10.95 seconds to break 4:00. Usain Bolt’s world record 100M time is 9.58 seconds, which translates to a 10.44 109M time. That is not a time that a distance runner is currently capable of at the end of a grueling mile.
The clothing and shoes that Nike has designed will certainly be helpful. On the other hand, since she’s been at a world-class level for several years and wearing exceptionally good gear and shoes, I would question how much more of a boost these items will be compared to what she’s been wearing already.
That also leads to the question of her maximum speed. Given that she’s a seasoned runner and not someone in their early twenties who just shocked the world with a 4:07, it’s hard to imagine that there could be a significant jump in her time. On the other hand, Cole Hocker PB’d by nearly 3 seconds in the 1500M at the Olympics in Paris. He is younger but that was a massive jump given his experience and the distance.
The one factor that could help her the most is the total distance. I pointed out prior to the Ineos 1:59 Challenge that Kipchoge’s biggest advantage was not having to run one step more than 26.2 miles. His course was precise. It’s possible to run only 26.2 on a world major course but that is the absolute minimum, meaning that if you veer off for a water bottle, as they do, or run slightly off of one tangent, you’re adding distance.
Kipyegon’s world records came during races and in those, staying exactly on the inside line of the track is going to be challenging, if not impossible. This means that every time you go off the inside line, you’re adding distance. 50M represents just over 7.5 seconds in a four-minute mile. Did she add that much in her prior attempt? Even if she added just 25M, then she would need to find around four more seconds to go under 4:00.
A non-tangible factor in Kipyegon’s favor is delivering top performances at key times. Winning three straight Olympic gold medals in the same individual track event is extraordinary. She’s obviously a highly talented runner but stringing together gold medals calls for delivering a high-level effort at a very specific time and place when you’re facing many of the world’s best. History suggests she’s able to deliver a world class performance when needed and that works in her favor.
I think it would be great to see Kipyegon break 4:00 in the mile and I hope she does. If I had to put money on it, I would say that she’ll run in the 4:03 to 4:04 range, which is still a massive drop at that level. Even if she does not break the mark, if she can get down to 4:03 or even 4:02, that makes the barrier much more approachable to future athletes. Shaving .5 to .75 seconds off of each lap is difficult, but easier to comprehend than two. We’ll know more on Wednesday. It will be possible to watch it and information about that is here.
Sources used:
American Cole Hocker stuns with Olympic gold in men’s 1,500 meters, upsets Ingebrigsten and Kerr – CBS News
Eliud Kipchoge Breaks Two-Hour Marathon Barrier – INEOS 1:59 Challenge
Faith Kipyegon breaks her own world record in 1,500 meters | AP News
Faith Kipyegon Wins Third Straight Olympic 1500-Meter Gold Medal
How Usain Bolt Ran 9.58 Seconds: Breaking Down the Fastest 100-Meter Record in History
Kipyegon tries to become 1st woman to break 4-minute mile | AP News
Nike, Faith Kipyegon ready attempt at fabled 4-minute barrier – oregonlive.com
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