Following my last post, Faith Kipyegon ran a 4:06.91 in her sub-4 attempt, leaving many to believe that it could be some time before a female breaks the four-minute barrier in the mile. Part of the rationale is that many factors were set up in her favor yet she got about .75 seconds closer to 4:00. At that level, that’s still a commendable amount of time. And that’s the point. If nearly seven more seconds need to be shaved off, that’s a ton.
How long will it take for sub-4 mile by a female to happen? This post does not suggest an answer but there are a couple of interesting numbers to consider.
The women’s ratified mile world record is 4:07.64 and the 800M record is 1:53.28. Using 800M splits, the difference is 9.3%. (If you’re curious, the men’s mile world record is 3:43.13 while the 800M record is 1:40.91. Using 800M splits, the difference is 10.7%.)
Using 9.3%, the women’s 800M world record would need to be basically 1:50 to convert to a 3:59 mile. Over the last twenty-eight years, the men’s 800M record has been broken four times but by a total of .81 seconds, or basically four-fifths of one second. The women’s record has stood since 1983 so there’s not a more recent set of time drops to consider. Either way, we’re talking fractions of seconds in races of these lengths, not multiple seconds.
Aside from the significant time drop that would be needed, there are fewer instances to compete in the mile because many events, including the Olympics, use the 1500M, also known as the “metric mile.” Often in professional races, there is less emphasis on time and more on tactics as the competitors are aiming to win the race, instead of gassing themselves too early on a record attempt. This means that even when there are mile races, there’s no guarantee that the mile record is the focus.
Barring a breakthrough, generational talent, with the smaller number of mile race opportunities, it may be a while before we see a woman go under 4:00 in the mile.
All that being said, it’s interesting and commendable of Nike to hold an event like that. It’s also admirable for an athlete to take that on. While I’m sure Kipyegon was well-paid for the attempt, that is a lot of pressure to bring on yourself for a tough attempt.
Sources used:
800 metres world record progression – Wikipedia
Breaking barriers: A timeline of men’s and women’s mile records | AP News
LetsRun.com: The Home Of Running – LetsRun.com
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