The GOAT…

Who is the distance running GOAT, or the Greatest of All Time? Now that the 2018 New York Marathon is in the books, mainstream running events are largely done until the Dubai Marathon in January. The next event that is most likely to help define the discussion around the GOAT is the London Marathon in April.

So who is the distance running GOAT? The argument recently has come down to three people: Haile Gebrselassie, Keninisa Bekele, and Eliud Kipchoge. Traditionally, someone in contention for the GOAT title is prolific at the 5000M, 10000M, and marathon.

Let’s look at each candidate.

Eliud Kipchoge. His name gets included now largely due to his dominance at the marathon level. Besides crushing the world record at Berlin this past September and almost going sub-2 hours, only one person has ever beaten him head-to-head at the distance. All of his marathon wins, except for one, have come at marathon majors, the Olympics, or the highly selective Breaking 2 project. To maintain this kind of dominance for several years at this distance is phenomenal, possibly unprecedented. He also earned bronze and silver medals at the 5000M distance in two Olympic games and has posted times in the top-25 all time for the 5000M and 10000M. Because he has not set world records at either distance and did not earn gold at the Olympics for those, his inclusion in the GOAT argument is very recent and more complicated, but well-deserved. The fact that he doesn’t have as many medals and accolades at the 5000M and 10000M distances would make it difficult for some people to say he should get this title over these other two contenders.

Keninisa Bekele. He holds the current world records in the 5000M and 10000M and has posted the third-fastest marathon time of all time (and it was the second-fastest when he ran it) which he earned when he won the 2016 Berlin Marathon. He has three Olympic gold medals (2004 10000M in Athens, 2008 10000M and 5000M in Beijing) and 1 silver (2004 5000M in Athens). He owns six world championships on the track and eleven world cross-country titles. However, his marathon career has been inconsistent. He frequently DNFs and though he has posted fast times, his performance when he’s been in the same race against Kipchoge and other current greats has been disappointing. He has raced nine times against Gebrselassie and came out ahead of him six times. That being said, Bekele was getting into the prime of his career and Gebrselassie was coming towards the end. Bekele’s dominance on the track and in cross country cannot be doubted and puts him as the GOAT for many people. His inconsistency at the marathon keeps me from saying he’s the GOAT.

Haile Gebrselassie. He held the world records at 5000M, 10000M, and the marathon at different points of his career. He has two Olympic gold medals, both at 10000M at the 1996 Atlanta and 2000 Sydney games. He doesn’t have as many world championships as Bekele and has zero cross-country world championships. However, Gebrselassie took monster amounts of time off the 5000M and 10000M world records and though Bekele’s records are technically faster, they’re not as big of a drop from the prior ones. Furthermore, besides setting the world record for the marathon, he won four straight Berlin Marathons and a Dubai marathon. It’s a very difficult call between Gebrselassie and Bekele, and Bekele’s track and cross country career obviously includes many more championships. However, given that Gebreselassie took the 5000M and 10000M into a new stratosphere and that his marathon career was more decorated, I would say he gets the edge for GOAT.

One similarity that Bekele and Kipchoge share is that they have been prolific in one area but not as decorated in the other. The advantage Kipchoge has, in my mind, is that his consistency at the marathon level is unparalleled. He doesn’t lose despite the fact he’s always running against the world’s best. In terms of someone being the greatest, I would argue that consistency is a big factor.

So what could change these arguments, either for me or someone else?

Haile Gebrselassie: Nothing, as he’s retired.

Eliud Kipchoge: If he wins the 2020 Tokyo Olympic marathon or were to go under two hours for the marathon, I would say it makes him the GOAT. Elite marathoners typically can stay at a high level for a few years. Kipchoge won his first marathon major in 2014, two years before the Rio Olympic games. To win a second gold six years and multiple major wins after the first would be nothing short of incredible. If Kipchoge were to win additional multiple majors and break his own world record, that might also be enough to make him the GOAT.

Keninisa Bekele: If he were to set the world record in the marathon, I would say he gets GOAT status. Given how difficult world records are to achieve and his dominance at other distances, two or more additional major marathon wins might also push him into that status, especially if he posted times in the 2:02 or low 2:03 range. His resume at the 5000M and 10000M distance, as well as cross-country, is so far above other runners’ that he doesn’t necessarily need a long, prestigious marathon career. But, while he’s had a marathon career that 99% of runners would gladly take, compared to Gebrselassie, he doesn’t have consistent excellence (relatively) at that distance.

Comparing these three runners is like comparing three five-star similar-fare restaurants. There will be little things that move people to choose one over the other but they’re all incredible. However, the argument is fun, there’s no definitive answer, and it keeps going.

At the present, there’s no other current runner who looks like they will be able to challenge these three but someone will come along. When they do, one of these runners will move off the list, or it will get more crowded and complicated.

In honor of a holiday revolving around food, here are three running food reviews.

Running food reviews of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race):

Gu Campfire S’mores: Note that it’s not oven s’mores or microwave s’mores. Campfire S’mores. To maximize the flavor, I tried this on a cold, rainy morning. It tasted good (maybe the weather helped) and it had a positive energy boost. I actually ate this on the first morning after taking 9 days off and it helped me run through any rust buildup.

Gatorade Cucumber Lime: If you ever wondered what it would taste like to drink a cucumber that’s been seasoned with lime, here’s your answer. I used this on a cold, snowy day though it had a “summery” taste. One thing that I liked was the lightness of the flavor. If you were feeling full but you needed hydration, taste-wise this might feel better going down. Technically it may fill you up the same way but the placebo effect could be there. I was not a fan of the taste but I could see value in using it for sustained energy. If you like the taste of drinking a cucumber, that’s an added bonus with this one.

Jelly Belly Sport Beans Lemon Lime: These taste like you would expect lemon lime jelly beans to taste, which is to say pretty good. For the energy boost, I did feel better on last two-thirds of my run so I would say they did their job. No caffeine in this one so they are better if you’ve already had your morning caffeine.

Sources used:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haile_Gebrselassie
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenenisa_Bekele
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5000_metres
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10,000_metres

Being a running fan/spectator part two…

Let’s start with with easiest distance to follow, the marathon. One note for the next couple of posts. If I have information that needs to be cited, there will be a “source” link at the end of the respective sentence that you can click. Also, those articles/websites will have more detail on that point of this discussion.

Pro marathoners will usually do two per year, one in the fall and one in the spring. You may get someone who will do three or more, but two is a standard number. There are six marathon majors. In alphabetical order they are: Berlin, Boston, Chicago, London, New York, and Tokyo. Berlin, Chicago, and New York take place in the fall while Boston, London, and Tokyo are in the spring. (Tokyo is in February, so winter may be a better designation.) Most of the recent world records have been set at Berlin but London is a flat and fast course and has also seen world records (Berlin source; London Source). Both Berlin and London are considered “fast” marathons where there is a legitimate attempt to set the world record. Boston (whose course is not world record eligible) and New York are considered more tactical. In other words, while time is important, the focus is more on strategy and maintaining your place (Marathon source).

You might wonder about the difference between a tactical versus fast marathon. Aren’t they all fast? Yes, the majors are all fast. But, even if the course is world-record eligible, the first goal of the elite runners is to win. It’s simply that a flat, fast course that is world record eligible will lend itself more to record pursuits.

There is a saying that a marathon has two halves, the first 20 miles and the final 6.2. For many runners, mile 20 is where you hit the wall and you hope to maintain your pace over the final 6.2. For many professionals, while there is strategy and jockeying for position in the first 20, the final 6.2 is where the most intense part of the race happens. Usually the leaders who will be contending for the win have broken away from everyone else and quite a lot can still happen among them. If a runner doesn’t have as much closing speed, maybe they try to push sooner in the race to create a gap over the other athletes earlier. If they have good closing speed, maybe they hope the pack stays together a little longer and then they use their superior speed to break away closer to the end.

For a major marathon on a fast, world-record eligible course, there is always hope it will be a good race and that a world record will fall. However, a number of factors can affect the pace including how well any hired pacers perform and weather conditions. If hired pacers go out too fast, the lead runners may use too much gas early in the race to get to a world record or, if the pacers start too slow, the leaders may not be able to make up the time. Since the first goal is to win, the leaders will use their judgement. It does them no good to be on world record pace through mile 23 and have to drop out. It’s much better to win and then hope for a record next time.

On weather conditions. Several days leading up to a race, you can start to see whether the conditions will be favorable for it to be fast. This past year, the weather was forecast to be warm for the London Marathon and thus a world record was less likely (London weather source). I was still up to see the end of it, just in case, but there was no record. Boston was going to be windy and rainy. In those conditions, all bets are off. Professional runners won the race, including a former second overall Boston finisher, but it was a grinder and you could be sure no course records were going to be set that day. In fact, 62.5% of the elite men’s field and 56.25% of the elite women’s field dropped out (2018 Boston source).

Ahead of time, the major marathons will release their roster of the elite field, which would be professional runners who have been invited to run the race and are expected to contend for the win. This can tell you what to expect. In the spring of 2017, Eliud Kipchoge participated in the Breaking2 project and was not going to be at London, which changed the dynamic of that race (Breaking 2 source ).  For the 2017 New York Marathon, Shalane Flanagan was predicted to potentially win the race (New York source). You never know how a race will play out, but seeing the rosters and pre-race analysis will tell you some baseline expectations.

There are many other marathons out there, some small, some mid-sized, and some large ones. Dubai, in January, has the largest prize purse and some of the world’s best have run there (Dubai marathon source). The other smaller and large marathons may not lure in the type of talent you see at the six majors, but there may be newer marathon runners there who are primed to jump to the next level.

How do you actually watch the marathon? This is trickier. Not too long ago, many of them had free live streams. Now, a lot of the majors have switched over to subscription streams, though residents of the area where it’s being held can often watch on a local news station. (Their servers do recognize whether your computer is actually in the area, so you can’t simply visit the local website and get access.) However, they also have Twitter feeds, Facebook posts, and if a local radio station is covering it, you may be able to tune into that station via the internet and listen in. That’s what I did for London this year.

Given that there are only so many major races to watch and that the elite marathoners do two per year, the marathon is one distance that is relatively easy to keep track of, as far as running goes.

This post is not quite marathon-length but to keep the pace reasonable, sprints will be next time…

Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Honey Stinger Fruit Smoothie: This one is pretty good. I ate it around 5:30 one morning before a quick early run and while it didn’t have the texture or temperature of a smoothie, it had the flavor and that’s good enough for me. Even better, on an empty stomach and downed with a glass of water, it went over just fine GI-wise. I was a little tired when I started but once this gel kicked in, I felt much better.

List of sources used:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Marathon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Marathon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon
https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a20854533/so-close-kipchoge-runs-a-2-00-25-in-the-breaking2-attempt/
https://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/index.ssf/2017/11/new_york_marathon_shalane_flan.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-43836614
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/04/trying-make-sense-crazy-2018-boston-marathon/
http://www.dubaimarathon.org/