A Blip, a Wow, a Whoah! 10/8/2023
It’s pretty clear that Kipchoge’s race at Boston this past spring was a blip, which he proved by winning his fifth Berlin Marathon two weeks ago.
The “Wow” is the Chicago Marathon this weekend where Kelvin Kiptum lowered the men’s world record to 2:00:35, or 34 seconds faster than the prior one of 2:01:09. With the ridiculous times he’s posted in his three marathons, plus the fact that the fastest unofficial marathon time ever is 1:59:40, the time is arguably not as shocking as one I’ll get to in a bit, but it’s a remarkable achievement. It suggests a sub-two hour ratified time may be imminent. For starters, there’s a much narrower time difference. Thirty-six more seconds and the time will be 1:59:59. Also, at the first event dedicated to seeing whether a marathoner could go under two hours, Breaking 2 in 2017, Kipchoge posted a 2:00:26. Kiptum is only nine seconds behind that without a phalanx of pacers and with having to grab his own water bottles.
Then, the “Whoah!” What stunned me most in the past two weeks was that the winner of the women’s race at the Berlin Marathon, Tigst Assefa, clocked a sub-2:12, knocking over two minutes off of the existing world record by posting a 2:11:53. There are plenty of good articles out there about the race itself; here’s a little additional information.
The last four years in the women’s marathon world have seen the record for 26.2 plummet. Paula Radcliffe held the mark of 2:15:25 for 16 years and during that period, the closest anyone else came to her time was 2:17:01. In 2019, Bridgid Kosgei ran a “Whoah!” race in the Chicago Marathon to blow right past Radcliffe’s time and log a 2:14:04. Assefa’s per-mile pace in Berlin two weeks ago was 5:02, or nearly five seconds faster per mile than Kosgei’s. Had they run their races side-by-side, Assefa would have been around 680 meters ahead of Kosgei, or a little more than 1 1/2 laps on a standard 400M track.
With the number of times being dropped, it’s hard not to tie the carbon-plated shoes to the new records. It’s not just the elite races, either. Earning a spot in the Boston Marathon has become significantly more difficult with the number of people posting qualifying times. Though not everyone is wearing carbon-plated shoes, I would suspect enough are to influence the pattern there. I don’t think humans have evolved that quickly, nor has any Fosbury-flop magnitude of change come to distance running strategy.
There is one possible caveat for the women’s times not related to technology. Some research suggests that men’s and women’s speed potential moves closer together the longer a race distance gets. I’m not sure at what point that would occur and the marathon may still be too short for it. But, maybe it’s possible there’s been potential for the women’s record to drop significantly and we’re seeing that. One caveat on the men’s side is that Kelvin Kiptum is only 23 years old, making him relatively young in the elite marathon world. Maybe the speed that normally would be dedicated to shorter events is helping him at this distance.
Not being a scientist, I’m just speculating or citing research. And, I can’t see where the new shoes are not influencing it. Regardless, we’re seeing some impressive times being posted out there.
Berlin weekend… 9/23/2023
The Berlin Marathon is Sunday and the main storyline is Kipchoge returning to the course to try for an unprecedented fifth victory there. Currently he shares the record of four victories with Haile Gebrselassie. There are two big questions. Was his sixth-place finish at Boston this past spring a blip, or is he more vulnerable? If it was a blip, can he lower his world record again?
There’s a second compelling storyline which is that several American men are running the race to try for the 2:08:10 Olympic standard. It’s unusual to see Americans in the Berlin Marathon. Their rationale for going there this year instead of New York or Chicago is based on new Olympic qualifying standards. These are not 100% clear, even to the athletes, except that if you have a 2:08:10 and also place in the top three at the U.S. Olympic Trials, you’re in for Paris in 2024. Chicago is a fast course but the weather is less predictable. New York is not a fast course. Enter Berlin.
One American athlete stood out to me, Scott Fauble. He has outlined a plan to go for the 2:08 mark, independent of what the leaders might be doing. For context, if the winning time is 2:02, 2:08 would be 14 seconds per mile behind that, meaning that he would have to let the leaders go early and not get tempted into stretching for the win in the early miles. And, in at least one other race, he showed the patience and discipline to do that.
At Boston this spring, a different American, Connor Mantz, stayed with the overall lead pack for a significant part of the race but eventually fell back. Fauble ran his own race behind the lead pack, passed Mantz in the latter stages, and finished as the first Anerican.
This may not be a strategy to spring a stunning upset for the overall win. But, his or any current American men’s chance at a win at a major or the Olympics is small. Why not patiently put yourself in a place where you increase your odds to go to the Olympics? It stood out from the normal pre-race talk I read from runners. And, it seems like a pragmatic way to get to Paris, without relying on an entry formula that’s unclear.
We’ll see how the times shake out shortly…
Where does Kipchoge go next… 5/6/2023
I’ve written several posts on the accomplishments of Eliud Kipchoge, including one with a way-too-early preview on his chances of winning this year’s Boston marathon. Most people who follow the sport are well-aware he finished sixth, after dropping off the lead pack at mile 18.
The main reason he cited for not winning is left leg pain. There was an interesting article about this from someone who has studied his gait and noticed during the race how he was adjusting in response to the pain. A couple of other things occurred before and during the race that I suspect contributed.
Well before Kipchoge dropped back, the commentators mentioned that he’d had a very busy schedule in the weekend leading up to the race, probably more so than other elite racers. Why wouldn’t he? While he’s not as famous as top athletes from other sports, as the marathon GOAT he’s a sought-after personality. Did he and his team overcommit him, maybe believing his abilities would be enough to counter any fatigue? Possibly. Add in the expectations that come in with that, and that’s a lot for the human psyche.
Right before he dropped out, he missed picking up his water bottle. For someone who plans his races as meticulously as he does, missing a key hydration point would probably rattle him. Throw this and/or extra fatigue on top of a minor injury and they certainly wouldn’t help in a race.
What will come next for him? In the week after Boston, I figured that New York could be a solid bet this fall, the other major he has not won. If he were to win there, he could return to Boston next spring for another chance there. Then the London Marathon happened.
The conditions at London were not favorable for world record times: rain with some wind. However, the winner, Kelvin Kiptum, a name that has only become widely known since the marathon, still blasted the course in 2:01:25, or 16 seconds off the world record and a whopping one minute and twelve seconds faster than Kipchoge’s prior course record. Kiptum’s now run two marathons, each in the 2:01 range. Would Berlin be able to arrange both Kipchoge and Kiptum racing there this fall? If Kipchoge feels he has at least one more world record race in him, returning to Berlin could be very tempting, especially if there’s someone who can actually push him. On the other hand, if he really wants to win all six majors, New York would be a near-certain bet. We’ll likely know soon.
Suspense partially neutralized… 12/10/2022
Several days ago, many running fans got the news they’ve wanted for a long time: Kipchoge will toe the line at the Boston Marathon in April. It’s a firm commitment from him towards trying to win all six majors. If he does win, it would be the fifth unique one where he’s crossed in first.
It’s way too early to speculate on his chances but it’s too much fun not to. What would keep him from winning?
1. No pacers and a world-record ineligible course. This means the race is all tactical as opposed to gunning it for a world record. The Olympics also have no pacers and are all tactical and he’s won gold medals at both marathons he’s entered there.
2. Weather. It can be cold and rainy. However, he won Berlin one year during a cool rain so I don’t think that’s a huge impediment.
3. The hills. Boston has more hills than the previous world majors he’s run, especially in the last third of the race. Some have questioned whether he’s avoided hills in his races. That’s hard to say but he hasn’t done a race with them so they pose an untested challenge. He also says he won’t be adjusting his training based on having more hills in Boston. This is interesting. On one hand, there’s no reason for him not to stick to the training that has led him to so much success. On the other hand, designing workouts around a course can be useful. It may be that he has enough hills in his usual training regimen that he and his coach believe they’re adequate for his preparation.
4. One wild card is the possibility that another runner goes out way fast, Kipchoge goes with them, and then doesn’t have enough left to handle the hills in the latter stages of the race. It would take an established and fast runner to tempt Kipchoge and even then, he’s experienced and savvy so it’s hard to imagine him taking the bait. Also, I don’t think someone of a high-enough caliber with a legitimate chance at winning would try to break away super early. It’s possible they would try it earlier than normal if they felt that was the only way to beat him. Still, it seems likely he would be able to match and counter clever tactical moves over the last several miles.
A lot can happen between now and April, and a lot can also happen during the race.
Let the training rumors, speculation, and analysis begin, though I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that if Kipchoge shows up healthy, it will be the most anticipated Boston Marathon ever.
Source used:
LetsRun.com: The Home Of Running – LetsRun.com
Back to Berlin… 9/23/2022
This is an out-of-the-usual-schedule post of the Untamed Runner. The Berlin Marathon is this coming Sunday and Eliud Kipchoge will be toeing the line there for the fifth time.
Before diving into a few bits surrounding his entry, it’s important to note that an American, Keira D’Amato, is the top seed in the women’s field. While that’s no guarantee she’ll win or even make the podium, it’s a feather in the cap of American running to be among the contenders at one of the fastest marathons.
One element that has emerged in the coverage of Kipchoge is a focus on possible future races. He has said he would like to win all six majors and many fans hope to see him soon at Boston and New York, the two he’s not yet raced. He also has said multiple times he intends to be at the 2024 Olympics in Paris. We’ll see what he decides on next and in the meantime, there’s significant anticipation for Sunday’s race.
I wrote a post this past spring speculating on whether Kipchoge might deliberately push for a sub-two hour time in an official marathon, specifically Berlin. In his press conferences, he has not committed to any precise goal time. Commentary has swirled about what may be possible for him. Part of his result will depend on the weather conditions. Right now, they’re forecast to be excellent for racing, so if that holds, it will be an advantage.
It also depends on his fitness. Because he’s been so dominant, it’s easy to forget that he is human and since his first marathon in 2013, he’s gained nine years just like the rest of us. While he doesn’t run more than two marathons per year and is clearly disciplined in his approach to the sport, he’s still putting on marathon training mileage year after year. That being said, he clobbered the fields at last year’s Olympics and in Tokyo, and all evidence suggests that he’s still capable of a blistering pace. Breaking his own world record could be in reach and, if we’re lucky, a bit more. We’ll see on Sunday…
Sources used:
Berlin Marathon: Eliud Kipchoge plays down world record chances – BBC Sport
Eliud Kipchoge, Keira D’Amato chase records at Berlin Marathon (yahoo.com)
Kipchoge and D’Amato head fields for Berlin, where records could fall | PREVIEW | World Athletics
Kipchoge’s final pre-Tokyo marathon outing set for Hamburg | NEWS | World Athletics
LetsRun.com: The Home Of Running – LetsRun.com
Speculation 4/1/2022
Planning and re-planning is part of racing, and a lot of fun. It’s also fun to speculate on what may be possible in other races.
Kipchoge was victorious in Tokyo by 33 seconds and has now won four different marathon majors. It’s becoming more difficult to contextualize his marathon career as he charges on with more wins. There’s really no comparison to anyone else.
What’s next? Some hope that he will go for winning all six majors. If he wants this goal, running New York this fall and Boston next spring would be logical, as they’re the final two.
It’s not clear whether he wants to pursue this. Following his first major win in Chicago in 2014, he stuck to Berlin and London for several years. Assuming that setting the world record was a primary goal for him, this was wise. They’re the fastest marathons on world record-eligible courses. Once he claimed the world record at Berlin in the fall of 2018, he could have done Boston or Tokyo in the spring of 2019. He opted for London (and maybe he hoped to drop the world record further), then did the Ineos 1:59 challenge that fall. Then came 2020. Most of the majors were cancelled though he did London which was held on a closed course for only invited, elite runners that October.
Tokyo and Boston were the only options this spring, as they were the only two majors being staged. He chose tactical races, the Olympics, in 2016 and 2021 but I doubt there are many runners who would opt out of a chance to compete there and go to a fall major instead. Why would he not go for New York this fall and attempt to win all six majors? This is where sheer speculation comes in.
Kipchoge owns the official world record, three of the four fastest official times ever, and the two fastest unofficial times. However, there could be additional time goals. One would be to drop the world record to an even faster time which he would likely hold onto for longer. The second, closely related to the first, would be to go for a sub-two hour time on an official course. Does he want to do this and is it currently possible?
Let’s pretend this is something he wants to attempt. If that’s the case, then Boston and New York are out. Boston is not a world record-eligible course. New York is but it’s not as flat as London or Berlin. The last seven world records have been broken in Berlin and so the odds there are in his favor. I assume he would choose it for this purpose.
He ran 1:59:40 in Vienna in October 2019. For that run, he had rotating pacers the entire way, along with a dedicated pace car. These were incredible advantages but I argued back then that one of his biggest ones was not having to run one step more than 26.2 miles. The course was marked precisely and his pacers handed him his hydration, meaning he never had to move off the line marking the exact distance.
Berlin paints a blue line on their roads to guide runners to the shortest possible distance to complete the race, or presumably an exact 26.2 miles. Since he stayed nineteen seconds under two hours in Vienna, he would have roughly 110-120 meters to “spare” to stay in that time frame. There’s no reason he couldn’t mostly stay on the blue line but he would have to veer off of it get his hydration from the aid stations. I count nine of them on the map but two are close together and he was getting a bottle every five kilometers at Ineos 1:59. In theory he’d take a total of eight so if he added ten-twenty meters per pullover, that could add a bit more than the 120.
Let’s just assume he would add 150-200 meters to 26.2, and so he would need to run around fifteen-twenty seconds faster than he did at Ineos 1:59. At the end of that challenge, Kipchoge came down the final stretch at an increased speed. This may partly have been adrenaline because at some point during the race, he did seem to lag just a bit. Or, maybe he could have pushed just a little harder earlier.
What would keep him from accomplishing a sub-two official time, besides the extra distance? He would be three years older. Nothing has suggested that he’s not still in prime shape (he crushed the Olympic and Tokyo fields handily) but when you’re talking about shaving nearly two minutes off of a world record or twenty seconds off of a run where everything was calibrated for success, little changes will come into play.
Not having pacers could affect him, though he ran the last half of the Berlin marathon on his own when he smashed the world record. And, when he fell twenty-five seconds short at Breaking 2 in 2017, he was on a track by himself whereas crowds line the Berlin course and he enjoys that support.
In short, assuming that the weather is ideal and he’s in normal form, there’s not much that would hold him back.
Whatever he does next, his status as the GOAT marathoner is well-established and racking up more wins at Berlin and/or London even without a new world record would only build that distinction. Winning all six majors or dropping the official world record to something even more absurdly fast would also do that. It sounds like he’ll make his announcement within the next couple of months and wherever he races, it will be worth the time to watch it.
The Olympics and a wish… 7/23/2021
The Olympics officially start this weekend. With COVID throwing the competitive running world into disarray over the past sixteen months, it’s difficult to say how the games may play out. Not only could athletes potentially miss events due to COVID, preparation and competition has looked very different in the lead-up to Tokyo.
Joshua Cheptegei should be the favorite in the 10000M and 5000M races for the men. Had these Olympics occurred on their normal cycle, it’s likely Kipchoge would have been the men’s marathon favorite. However, after finishing eighth in London last fall it’s more of a question mark. Was his eighth-place finish due to the ear issue he referenced, compounded by a lack of fans and a cold rainy day, or will someone else take the crown? There are other major winners in the field, including Lelisa Desisa, Lawrence Cherono, and Shura Kitata, who won London last fall, so the race should be compelling.
Brigid Kosgei is the clear favorite in the women’s marathon and her world record is still minutes faster than the field around her. However, with the lack of a “normal” race schedule in the past year-plus, maybe someone who would normally have emerged as a rival will be primed to challenge her. On the other hand, she won the London marathon by nearly four minutes last fall. Hellen Obiri of Kenya is entered in both the 5000M and 10000M and has quite a bit of track success. Since the Olympics tend to feature more tactical races, this can play well to experienced runners.
The spirit of the Olympics is international competition among the world’s best. However, though there are time standards that the athletes must meet in distance races, each country is allowed only three entries. Besides the basic Olympic standard, I wish there was also a faster automatic-qualifying standard. If you make the faster standard, you get to go regardless of whether you’re one of the initial three from your country. (Yes, the Olympic standard is ridiculously fast but using the men’s marathon time of 2:11, when there are a decent number of runners under 2:05, there is a significant time gap between the basic qualifying time and reasonably good odds to make the podium.) While there need to be limits on the number of runners, an additional standard could be a time that wouldn’t yield many more participants would but would ratchet up the speed of the field.
One final note. Badwater was run earlier this week. It was clear early on that it would not be a record-setting year. I suspect this was partly due to the higher heat. I don’t believe it was the hottest start on record but it was among the warmer ones. In some years the start has seen temperatures in the 105-110 degree range. This year it was 115. Once it’s that hot, five degrees may not seem like much but since there are residual effects (ie, it won’t cool down as much at night) and the next day was even hotter (up to 117) the conditions were exceptionally brutal. Even the toughest athletes in the world will be affected by that and two former winners DNF’d. There is a forty-eight hour time limit and the final runner made it across the line with around forty minutes to spare. Given that the last thirteen miles are all uphill, I have to wonder whether forty minutes felt a little close, and victorious.
Results and what we can learn… 10/15/2020
The period of October 4th through 7th, which included the London Marathon and Joshua Cheptegei’s world record attempt at 10000M, came and went and surprises were in store. There are takeaways from these events, and also lessons to learn or to be reminded of in our own running.
Kenenisa Bekele withdrew from the London Marathon on October 2nd, meaning that the highly anticipated matchup between him and Eliud Kipchoge didn’t happen. What if Bekele had stayed in? It’s hard to say because after being a solid bet as the overall winner for whatever marathon he entered for six years, Kipchoge finished eighth in London. He could have fortified his GOAT arguments with a win, a new world record, or going under two hours in a world-record ratified race. Bekele could have solidified his with a world record. By the end of the race, neither of them shaped their GOAT status significantly. Shura Kitata won and this was not an overwhelming surprise, given his record and talent. That he did so against Kipchoge was a surprise, but primarily in the sense that Kipchoge didn’t win.
On October 7th, in spite of the temperature being a little on the warm side, Joshua Cheptegei set the new world record in the 10000M in 26:11, down from 26:17. The number of records he has set is remarkable and though he still needs several accomplishments to be in the conversation, it’s hard to imagine him not getting there at some point. Now, we get to wait and see what happens with these athletes next.
On the women’s side, it may be possible that Brigid Kosgei has shown the women’s running world what’s possible with her new world record. However, her competitors still weren’t close as she won by over three minutes. This was a lot closer than the nearly seven minute margin of victory she enjoyed when setting the world record in Chicago last year, but it’s still over a half mile of distance.
What can the rest of us take away from all of this? Enjoy success when you have it. With individual sports, any number of things can affect your performance. Some may be within your control and some are not. When you set a personal best, it’s good to look forward and set the next goal, but enjoy the fact that you got to the level you wanted. Also, know where you are. I’m sure the other female competitors had hoped to hang with Kosgei. Yet, for the moment, she’s light years, or at least a half-mile to mile, ahead of the competition. It’s valuable to be able to base our own expectations off of what we see going on around us, but it’s also valuable to know our capabilities on race day. The other women probably could have run with Kosgei for longer but at what cost? Better to take a podium finish and bigger payday than DNF over chasing a time that isn’t realistic. In your own races or time trials, stick with what you know. If things are going really well, speed up at a point when you’re confident you can hold it the rest of the way, and remember you can go for something faster the next time.
Running is a sport of patience. We all want our weeks of training to lead up to an unfathomable, ridiculously fast time on race day. Maybe our training has gotten us there. If it does, enjoy the moment. But, weather, something we ate the night before, or “it’s just not our day” factors may creep in. Learn, set it aside, and keep running. The patience and perseverance will pay off down the road.
Sources used:
https://www.letsrun.com/
When the world shifts… 10/17/2019
I won’t dive into long sentences of praise (though it’s well deserved) or an overview of the two remarkable marathon accomplishments this past weekend: Eliud Kipchoge becoming the first human to cover the marathon distance in under two hours and Brigid Kosgei’s sailing to a new women’s world record of 2:14:04, 81 seconds faster than the previous mark of 2:15:25. Many articles have already done that.
What else is there besides praise and overviews? Two other interesting facts and two takeaways.
One statistic that has not been highlighted with Kosgei’s new mark is that before Sunday, no other female runner had come within 96 seconds of 2:15:25, meaning that she knocked 2.1 %, or nearly three minutes, off of that time of 2:17:01. Prior to Sunday, because of the discrepancy between the world record and the second-fastest time, the general assumption was that Radcliffe’s mark would be broken by several seconds, not by over one minute.
A second fact that sets Kipchoge’s accomplishment apart besides running a time previously untouched by a human is how far under two hours he went, which was nearly twenty seconds in 1:59:40.2.
Now that there are new top-speed standards, the racing world will respond. It may still be a while before we see a sub-2 hour performance on a world-record eligible course. However, if I was an organizer at Berlin or London, I would be thinking of ways to increase the odds.
There are painted lines on the roads at some majors to guide the elite runners to the shortest course possible and maybe you make those even more obvious. Maybe you incentivize the pacers even more. This isn’t to suggest they don’t already want to perform well but it’s clear that pacing is difficult and requires much sacrifice by those involved. And, assuming it’s legal within racing parameters, maybe you circle your top three to five runners who are most likely to post sub-two hours and put their hydration/energy mixes on a smaller table that can be placed right along the shortest-course line. It’s illegal for them to have their hydration handed to them but if they don’t have to veer off the shortest tangent to grab it, that does help them. Given how Kipchoge finished and still appeared to have some energy, in addition to the near-twenty second gap under two hours, there may be enough room there for someone to go sub-two on a flat, eligible course.
For women, no longer is running in the 2:17 range going to be enough. For years, it would have nearly guaranteed a win at the marathon majors and 2:18-2:20 was elite. Those times still are and they may still garner wins. But, there have been other elite marathon runners besides Kosgei in recent years and there will be others, and now they know that 2:14 is possible. We may not see a cascade of time drops through the next several majors but it’s hard to imagine winning times not dropping substantially.
The second takeaway is that occasionally, a collaborative effort may elevate us to new standards in our sports. Had Kosgei fallen off world record pace at mile 18 or 19, she probably still would have won (second place finished nearly seven minutes behind her), but both she and Kipchoge made their desire to excel and reach new peaks more important than a basic win. (Obviously Kipchoge’s event wasn’t a race against other athletes, but he did forego the chance of winning another fall major by taking part in the Ineos1:59 challenge.) Both worked with outstanding pacers. In Kosgei’s case it was two male pacers through the majority of the race. In Kipchoge’s, it was forty-one pacers, thirty-six of whom were used, rotating in and out over the 42.195 KM to get him to his goal. All of these pacers from this past weekend can celebrate in having helped their respective athlete achieve success and yet, pacing is a sacrifice for the runners involved, for they must give up part of their training and racing schedule in order to do so. The point is that if we can occasionally prioritize a collaborative effort and focus on new possibilities as opposed to simply winning, we may be able to see what we’re really capable of as humans, at least in the running world.
Whether we’ll see another sub-two attempt hosted by a different company or an all-out pursuit of a new world record in the near future is difficult to say. In the meantime we can enjoy what we witnessed this past Saturday. To toss in one bit of praise, it saw two epic accomplishments.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Daelmans Stroopwafel: These are not necessarily designed as energy food though they have the same appearance and texture as the Honey Stinger and Gu waffles. I liked it, in that it tasted good and I felt good on the run. Were I to have to buy these while travelling, I would be good with that.
Sources used:
https://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/39683756
https://results.chicagomarathon.com/2019/?lang=EN_CAP&pid=leaderboard
https://www.ineos159challenge.com/
https://www.outsideonline.com/2403868/eliud-kipchoge-brigid-kosgei-nike-vaporflys
One month to go… 9/12/2019
The Ineos 1:59 challenge, when Eliud Kipchoge will make his second dedicated attempt to run a marathon in under two hours, is scheduled for October 12th in Vienna, Austria. There is a backup date of October 20th in the event of unfavorable weather.
Two hours is a number and more specifically, a nice round number. While we rely on and need ways to measure time, when it comes to running, our system of measurement records how fast we move our bodies during a race. It doesn’t physically dictate how fast we move. It also doesn’t dictate our potential. Certainly there have been big time barriers that humans have broken, such as the four-minute mile and the ten-second one hundred meter dash. And, those times have been lowered since then, emphasizing that we use time to measure what we’ve done, not to limit what we can do.
Part of Kipchoge’s approach to running is that no human is limited and this gets to the concept of thinking beyond our units of measurement and pushing yourself to your limits. This effort is primarily about the two-hour mark and it’s also about how fast he can run and using the system of time-keeping to measure it. While he or another marathon runner should not go out and attempt to run the marathon in fifty seven minutes and ten seconds (which would be Usain Bolt’s maximum speed sustained over the length of a marathon), it’s also unwise to be bound in by the concept of two being an unbreakable barrier simply because it’s a round number that we haven’t gotten past yet.
To be fair to our clocks, our numbers increase our thirst for possibility and keep us interested in pushing our potential. We can use them to motivate ourselves, especially those of us who are not going to be breaking two hours for the marathon. If a 5K runner hits 17:05 in a race, they know that going six seconds faster is possible and gets them into a different time range. From a more practical standpoint, even if research were to hypothesize that our current maximum speed for the marathon is one hour, fifty-eight minutes, and forty-three seconds, “Breaking 2” and “Ineos 1:59” just work better from a marketing standpoint.
All that being said, two hours is one second more than 1:59:59, one second less than 2:00:01. Kipchoge has stated that he will break the two-hour barrier. If you consider his talent, the factors I outlined in a previous post, and go with the concept that he may not allow himself to be limited by a system that we’ve designed, it’s reasonable to believe that he will do so. We’ll know in a month.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Skratch Hydration Drink Matcha Green Tea & Lemon. I don’t like tea. I like it even less with lemon. I thought this was lemon-lime. The packaging color is similar enough to their lemon-lime that I don’t know if this was a mis-stocked packet or user error. Either way, I winced at first taste. However, as much as I disliked the flavor, which is due to my preference and not the taste quality, this stuff works really well. The morning was hot but using this, I felt outstanding the whole way. Also, this is non-gmo, gluten free, dairy free, kosher, and vegan. Highly recommended if you like tea.
Sources used:
https://www.ineos159challenge.com/
https://www.thoughtco.com/how-fast-can-humans-run-4152138
Quick Badwater Recap… 7/18/2019
This past Monday saw the running of Badwater 135. By the Darwin checkpoint at mile 90, the lead male and female runners, Yoshihiko Ishikawa and Patrycja Bereznowska, respectively, were ahead of course record pace and both were ultimately successful in setting new ones.
The men’s record was dropped by 23 minutes, from 21:56 to 21:33, or 1.7%. The women’s record was shattered by 100 minutes, from 25:53 to 24:13, or 6.4%. Bereznowska was also the second overall finisher, ahead of three former Badwater number one overall champions. Third place was nearly two hours behind her.
Video was posted of Ishikawa running along the route around mile 95 and he appeared to be comfortably cruising along, which is impressive given that competitors at that point have just finished two nasty climbs in Death Valley and are still on the searing desert floor for 27 more miles before they have a 13-mile climb up the Whitney Portal Road.
There were 16 DNF competitors, compared to over 30 last year. This is likely due to the temperature difference. The thermometer topped out somewhere around 116 to 118 during this year’s race, whereas last year it was in the low 120s and the humidity was up. While that may all sound excessively hot (and it is) small temperature shifts make a big difference.
Next year’s race is earlier in July, so less than fifty-two weeks to wait.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Gu (Roctane Line) Sea Salt Chocolate: I tasted all chocolate and no sea salt. Not a problem, unless you are really going for the salt flavor. As far as effectiveness, it was very smooth on the intake and didn’t cause any GI issues. I didn’t notice any especially large boost but I wasn’t sluggish either. This wouldn’t be my first choice to carry with me but I’d be okay with it if there were no other choice.
Sources used:
http://www.badwater.com/event/badwater-135/
https://weather.com/
Why 1:59:57… 6/27/2019
I used a few ways to come up with the 1:59:57 prediction for the Ineos 1:59 challenge in in last week’s post. Kipchoge’s goal is to run anything under two hours. Shaving time at that speed is very difficult so it’s unwise to think he would knock it out in 1:59:15. But, while his approach will be based on precision, he also probably won’t go for exactly 1:59:59 and it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll aim for 1:59:50 to 1:59:55.
I also considered his best marathon results. Those are (arguably) 2:01:39 at Berlin in 2018, 2:00:25 at Breaking 2 in 2017, 2:02:37 at London in 2019, and 2:03:05 in London in 2016.
For 2018 Berlin, the temperatures were on the warm side, 55 to 62 degrees Fahrenheit, but the wind was 3 miles per hour due north and there are very few parts of the course that go due north.
For Breaking 2, the temperature was a steady 54-55 degrees Fahrenheit the entire race. This is a little on the warm side for a marathon but he faced no wind as a triangle-shaped group of pacers stayed in front of him for the entire course.
In the 2019 London Marathon, the temperature was 47 to 55 degrees Fahrenheit but the wind was west/northwest at 14 mph. That is a lot of wind and he did not have a steady group of pacers in front of him blocking it.
In the 2016 London Marathon, the temperatures ranged from 48 to 52 degrees Fahrenheit and though the wind was 10 miles per hour, it was also due north and the London course is predominantly east-west.
Wind is clearly a big factor in the races. The higher temperatures don’t appear to affect Kipchoge and he’s been wearing compression sleeves during the last couple of marathons. Given that he won’t have to contend with the wind on this attempt (assuming it’s not howling, though they would probably shift the attempt to a different day), then the biggest unknown will be the temperature.
If the attempt is held in October, the temperatures will likely be cool. Also, they can start the race when they wish. Thus, if the temperatures will be between 45-50 degrees between 5:15 a.m. and 7:15 a.m. one morning, they can pencil it in and go then.
Would Kipchoge have gone faster had the temperature been three to five degrees cooler at Berlin last fall? Part of my 1:59:57 prediction is based on the idea that he would have. Even if he likes warm weather, I also like it but my times are much faster in cooler weather, as are most peoples. I’m not a world-class marathoner, but there are some constants across most humans and even if we like heat or extreme cold, upper forties to upper fifties is where most distance runners will excel.
One advantage I mentioned last week is that he won’t have to run one step over 26.2 miles in this attempt, whereas he probably added a little distance in his other marathons. For the sake of argument, let’s say Kipchoge ran an additional 25-100M to the Berlin course through grabbing hydration and possibly a couple of imperfect tangents. At his pace, that is around 4.25 to 17 seconds. This doesn’t take him from 2:01:39 to 1:59:59, but it’s a chunk of time that he gains by virtue of running 26.2 exactly.
I didn’t use an exact formula to get to 1:59:57, but given the data above, I’ll stick with it.
If Kipchoge doesn’t go under two hours, it doesn’t mean a human isn’t capable, it just means we don’t know and we’ll have to wait and see. In the meantime, buckle up for October. It should be fun.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Honey Stinger Mango Orange. This one had a very mild orange flavor that was fine. My legs were sluggish when I started but at about the mile mark, I felt much better. It scored acceptable to well on all three of my criteria. Given that the flavor didn’t blow me away, I wouldn’t stock up on it but I would gladly use it during an event.
Sources used:
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/germany/berlin/historic?month=9&year=2018
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/italy/monza/historic?month=5&year=2017
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/uk/london/historic?month=4&year=2016
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/uk/london/historic?month=4&year=2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge
Five factors for sub-2… 6/20/2019
As mentioned in last week’s post, we will get to witness another chance for a human going under two hours for the marathon this coming fall during Eliud Kipchoge’s attempt in the Ineos 1:59 challenge. Here are the five reasons that I believe he will do so, moving from least to most impactful:
Timing. When Kipchoge attempted to run a sub-two hour marathon in May of 2017, it was nearly nine months following his Olympic gold medal victory and almost thirteen months after finishing number one in the London Marathon. The Ineos 1:59 Challenge will be held approximately six months after his 2019 London win. While this type of time span won’t make a huge difference in terms of one’s race experience and being rusty, it’s also true that he will have had a more recent “fast” marathon than he did in 2017. All of these marathons are fast, according to most people’s abilities, but in a prior post I pointed out the difference between tactical versus fast marathons and the Olympics is all tactics versus London where competitors may aim for a world record.
Only one. Kipchoge will be the sole participant attempting sub-two hours in this event. For the Nike Breaking 2 Project in 2017, there were three athletes. Kipchoge ran his own race and in no way did the other runners affect him. But, when he broke the world record in Berlin last fall he ran a negative split, meaning he ran the second half faster than the first one. If this is a strategy he is comfortable with, then he can dictate how the pacers and pace car work. Unlike last time when they worked at a steady sub-two hour pace to accommodate all three runners, if he wants to go at 60:15 for the first half marathon and 59:44 for the second half, he can do so and the car and pacers will comply.
History. Obviously he’s done this type of event before. Shaving 26 more seconds is substantial at that speed but 1 second per mile seems to be within reach. I wouldn’t say anything went wrong with his first attempt, but he and his coach will study the last race and figure out what minor adjustments he can make in order to make his best attempt possible.
Crowds: Kipchoge loves the crowds and this was cited as a factor on the last sub-two attempt. That event was run on an auto race track with his pacers, the other runners, and a handful of spectators. Having a bigger crowd will be a boost for him.
The distance. This may sound odd. It’s 26.2 miles, right? Yes. But, the shortest distance that a world record eligible marathon course can be is 26.2 miles. Unless the athlete is able to run the route with perfect tangents through all the curves, running exactly 26.2 miles is not going to happen. Also, Kipchoge and all the elite athletes are mortal and must pick get their water bottles at various stops. This means moving slightly off the best tangent to grab their hydration. For the elite marathoners, they won’t be much above the 26.2, but it is something, and it’s a bit of distance Kipchoge won’t have to run on this attempt. Why will this one be different? They will set up a course and devise a way, likely at least with road markings, to keep him to the exact distance. His pacers will hand him his hydration so he never has to veer off the most exact route possible.
There are several unknowns about this attempt, including the exact day and the course. But, it will be flat and they’ll pick the most optimal day in terms of temperature and wind. Kipchoge can train as he sees fit to get be prepared and everything else will be ready for him. While the attempt is months away, I’m making a way-too-early prediction of 1:59:57.
How did I arrive at 1:59:57? Check out next week’s post…
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Clif Bloks Cran Razz: These tasted just like Cranberry-Raspberry and looked similar to the canned cranberry sauce seen on Thanksgiving tables. The flavor was good and the energy was decent, too. I would use them as a pre-run food.
Sources used:
https://www.ineos159challenge.com/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/athletics/2019/05/05/eliud-kipchoge-plans-stage-second-attempt-breaking-two-hour/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breaking2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge
London Recap… 5/2/2019
Eliud Kipchoge maintained his run of dominance at London and set a new course record along the way. He has now won twelve of the thirteen marathons he’s entered, including the Breaking 2 project. It’s difficult to put this string of achievements in words but it’s sufficient to say that he is the greatest marathon runner in history.
I had picked Mosinet Geremew, Mule Wasihun, and Shura Kitata as others who were possible contenders. They did stay as a pack with Kipchoge which was their best chance at pulling an upset. But, Kitata dropped back at mile twenty-four, Kipchoge kicked into a higher gear, and shortly after that, Geremew and Wasihun fell behind, unable to maintain the pace.
I do think Geremew may be one to keep an eye on. He is now the second-fastest marathon runner in history and though part of his time may have been due to trying to hang with Kipchoge, his other half-marathon and marathon times are solid, and I won’t be surprised if he turns into a contender at majors.
The women’s race featured four of the last six marathon majors champions, including the current women’s-only marathon world record holder. Brigid Kosgei emerged victorious. American Emily Sisson finished in 6th with a time of 2:23:08 and another top American female finisher, Molly Huddle, finished in 12th with a 2:26:33. Sisson was pleased with her result, Huddle was not. However, it reminded me of the fact that American women’s distance running is on a very good streak right now.
When the IAAF changed their Olympic qualifying standards recently, one thing jumped out at me from the U.S. women’s distance running side. I will write about that next week, as well as the thought that world-level success in American distance running in the near future is more likely to come from the women’s competitors.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Hammer Bar Raw Energy Oatmeal Apple: I went bug-eyed, and not in a good way, when I started this but I managed to get it down. It wasn’t the flavor that induced this reaction but the texture, which couldn’t make up its mind between being a bar or some gooey substance. From an energy and GI standpoint, it seemed fine but I won’t be buying more.
Sources used:
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ethiopia/mosinet-geremew-254659
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2019/04/brigid-kosei-is-your-new-queen-as-she-destroys-the-worlds-greatest-marathon-field-ever-assembled-in-london/
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2019/04/eliud-kipchoge-runs-20237-shatters-london-course-record-to-win-10th-straight-marathon/
London prediction by the numbers… 4/25/2019
In the sport of the men’s marathon, picking Eliud Kipchoge to win is one of the safest bets you can make. He’s won eleven of the twelve marathons he’s entered, he ran the fastest unofficial marathon of all time at the Breaking 2 project, and he crushed the world record at the 2018 Berlin Marathon in spite of his pacers falling off earlier than planned. By all accounts he is disciplined and methodical in his approach to his training and races, and his mental fortitude and ability to run his own race make him formidable as a competitor.
If Kipchoge’s training has gone well and he’s healthy, it’s difficult to imagine him not winning. There’s no such thing as a guaranteed win in the sporting world, but Kipchoge has, so far, been forty-three seconds away from a perfect record at 26.2. Even the great Haile Gebrselassie, who entered sixteen marathons, won a total of nine and four of those were majors. Of Kipchoge’s eleven wins, seven have been at majors. However, as mentioned in last week’s post, marathons are run by humans and here are the other likely contenders:
Tola Shura Kitata was the only person in 2018 to come within a minute of Kipchoge and this was at last year’s London race. In March of 2018, he posted a 1:00:20 half marathon in Houston and this past March, he posted a 1:00:11. Does this mean he’ll automatically be eighteen seconds faster? No, but it does show he’s in similar shape to last year. He also finished second in last fall’s New York Marathon, barely losing to Lelisa Desisa by two seconds in 2:06:01. The time is far off of his personal best but New York is known to be more of a tactical race and doesn’t lend itself to pure speed. Based on his current results and last year’s race, Kitata could be one who stays in contention.
Mosinet Geremew and Mule Wasihun have both posted sub-60:00 half marathons this year. This and the fact they’ve run 2:04 marathons suggests they’re in the kind of shape they need to be in order to achieve similar or faster times. Both have run faster full and half marathon times than Kitata so they have the ability to stay in contention like him.
Abraham Kiptum owns the world record in the half marathon in a time of 58:18 and that was set in October 2018. His fastest marathon is 2:05:26 though he has not run that distance since his half marathon world record.
If anyone among Kitata, Geremew, Wasihun, or Kiptum hopes to win, it would serve them well to stick as a group near Kipchoge, then hope for a final surge at the end to get them across the line into first.
Leule Gebrselassie and Daniel Wanjiru, similar to Wilson Kipsang (see last week’s post), are outside contenders. Gebrselassie ran a 2:04 recently and posted a sub-60:00 half marathon in 2017. Wanjiru won London in 2017 and has impressive personal bests, but he did not post them recently. Similar to Kipsang, he may have an outstanding race left in him but he also is on the periphery.
Mo Farah hopes to be in contention and could run an aggressive race. The one wild card with Farah is that he’s relatively new to the marathon (this will be his fourth) and though you can get a good sense of a marathon runner’s potential after three, they also likely have better races left in them. In an earlier post, I pointed out that he believes he can get into the 2:04 range and that a high 2:03 could be possible. Many of Kipchoge’s winning times have been in this range and if Farah is still with the lead pack at the end, he is capable of a solid final kick. But, he has not gone into the 2:04 range yet as his personal best is 2:05:11. I include Farah among the outside contenders.
Though there are these and other elite runners in the field in London and they’ve posted times close to some of Kipchoge’s, his numbers, in addition to his overall record, create a convincing argument in his favor. Here is some data on his marathon performances and, where applicable, how the other 2019 London elite competitors fared against him:
-Hamburg, 2013: won by 2:05.
-Berlin, 2013: second place, lost by 42 seconds to Wilson Kipsang, who set the world record that day.
-Rotterdam, 2014: won by 1:08.
-Chicago, 2014: won by 17 seconds.
-London, 2015: won by 15 seconds. Kipsang finished second.
-Berlin, 2015: won by 81 seconds.
-London, 2016: won by 46 seconds. Kipsang finished 5th, 4:47 behind.
-Rio Olympics, 2016: won by 70 seconds.
-Breaking 2 project May 2017: won by 6:26. (Three competitors.)
-Berlin, 2017: won by 14 seconds, Mosinet Geremew finished in third, 2:40 behind.
-London, 2018: won by 32 seconds. Tola Kitata was second; Mo Farah finished third, 2:04 behind; Daniel Wanjiru finished eighth, 6:18 behind.
-Berlin, 2018: won by 4:44. Kipsang finished third, 5:09 behind.
It’s notable that in Kipchoge’s eleven wins, there have been eleven unique second-place finishers. If he did have a regular rival or two, it’s possible they could adjust their training and race strategy to finally get past him but he is winning comfortably over a significant number of athletes.
At some point, time and age will catch up with Kipchoge. I don’t think it will happen on Sunday and I’m still picking him to win.
As of right now, the weather forecast in London is favorable for the marathon with a high in the low 60s and partly cloudy skies. If it stays that way and there’s not a strong wind, while it’s not ideal in terms of temperature, there’s no reason to think the times won’t be fast. Kipchoge will run what he is capable of and I find it hard to believe he would simply “go for the win.” But, I won’t go so far as to predict a world record. After he came agonizingly close to the world record in London in 2016, it took him just over two years to finally break it, even when it was abundantly clear he could do so. World records require a number of factors coming together to be broken and if he does break it again, it would be a pleasant surprise to see.
London, like other majors, is a thrilling race. This year, it offers the excitement of seeing the greatest marathoner of all time, the half marathon world record holder, a former marathon world record holder, the 5000M and 10000M gold medalist from the last two Olympics, and a strong contingent of other elite runners. It will be fun to watch.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Honey Stinger Organic Energy Chews Pink Lemonade. These taste like small chewy squares of pink lemonade so if you like that beverage, you’ll like this energy food. GI-wise, they were excellent. And, I was pretty tired that day but eating these before I ran, I felt good, so I have to say they did their job well.
Sources used:
https://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/39683756
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2228710-chicago-marathon-2014-results-mens-and-womens-top-finishers
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/great-britain-ni/mo-farah-179892
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ethiopia/leule-gebrselassie-272341
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ethiopia/mosinet-geremew-254659
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/kenya/eliud-kipchoge-188307
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/kenya/wilson-kipsang-kiprotich-237679
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ethiopia/shura-kitata-305843
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ethiopia/tamirat-tola-285231
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ethiopia/mule-wasihun-281689
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2015/09/2015-berlin-marathon-results/
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2015/04/results-2015-london-marathon-results/
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/04/results-2016-london-marathon-results/
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/09/tracking-results-live-leaderboard-2017-bmw-berlin-marathon/
https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2018/04/22/2018-london-marathon-results/
https://www.virginmoneylondonmarathon.com/en-gb/event-info/spectator-info/elite-fields/2019-elite-mens-field/
https://weather.com/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breaking2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mo_Farah
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haile_Gebrselassie
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilson_Kipsang_Kiprotich
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Kiptum
From Hopkinton to Greenwich 4/18/2019
I basically came out one for two on my predictions for Boston. In the women’s race, Worknesh Degefa led for the last twenty miles and by a wide margin for much of that distance. While I’m not a professional runner being on your own, even in the lead, can be simultaneously comforting and stressful. If you’re with other runners, you can work off of each other and focus on that to cumulatively help your pace. But, it can make the end more stressful as you gauge when to make your final surges and kicks. When you’re on your own, especially towards the end of a race, it makes your final kick decision easier but you don’t have the benefit of other runners to work with. I assume that professional runners have unique reactions to these kinds of race scenarios. Whatever level of stress Degefa did or did not feel, she crossed the line in first place and was not seriously challenged from mile six to the end. There has also been quite a bit of buzz around Jordan Hasay, the top American finisher in third place. She had taken time off for injury and it was unknown how she would perform. A third place finish in Boston is a solid return and it legitimately puts her into Olympic medal talk for the 2020 games.
The men’s race featured a tight lead pack with many lead changes including some by two Americans, Jared Ward and Scott Fauble. There were three men shoulder to shoulder coming into the last half mile which is unusual. Lawrence Cherono crossed the line in first, winning by a margin more commonly seen at shorter distances as he edged out Lelisa Desisa by two seconds. In reality, it was less as Desisa slowed right as he knew that Cherono would win. These thrilling finishes are exciting for the fans and for the competitors though, similar to my above comment, I’m sure there are those who revel in tight finishes and those who dread them.
Boston 2019 held up to its basic expectations and, more importantly, featured better racing conditions than last year. Congratulations to the Boston athletes.
On to London, which is in ten days. The biggest story is Eliud Kipchoge and Mo Farah returning to the starting line. If Kipchoge is healthy and his training has gone well, he’s about as solid of a bet as you can have in the marathon prediction world and it would be wise to pick him for the win. But, marathons are run by humans and it’s possible for strange things to happen.
Wilson Kipsang is also running. He set the marathon world record, at that time 2:03:23, in 2013 at Berlin. In that race, he was the only person to ever beat Kipchoge head-to-head in a marathon. The world record fell again at Berlin in 2014 and Kipsang has been a more obscure marathoner since that time, despite his talent and success. Including his world record, he has won five marathon majors and finished second in three others. He also lowered his personal best to 2:03:13 in 2016. Three things have worked against his being more acclaimed: Kipchoge’s unparalleled success, the interest in whether Kenenisa Bekele would be a regular contender at the elite level in the marathon, and the entrance of Mo Farah onto the marathon scene. However, Kipsang’s marathon results are impressive and on par with or better than the top marathon contenders in the world right now. For example, Lelisa Desisa, one of the best current marathon runners, has three victories and three second place finishes in majors, and participated in Breaking 2.
Will Kipsang contend? He set the course record at the Tokyo Marathon in 2017, not long after setting his personal best. Though it’s been a couple of years, these athletes are only running two marathons per year and those results are only several races ago. However, while he is phenomenally talented and the only other person in the field to have come within two minutes of Kipchoge’s world record (not to mention beating him), he apparently was in top shape for Berlin this past fall and felt confident he could challenge Kipchoge. That didn’t quite work out and though Kipchoge left everyone very far behind him in his 2:01:39 word record time, Kipsang posted a 2:06 48 and being over five minutes off of Kipchoge is substantial.
It’s possible Kipsang has a solid race left in him and his personal best ranks second among the London elite runners this year. However, while I definitely would not count him out, I‘m ranking him on the periphery of contenders and not as someone who is likely to challenge for the win.
Who are the likely contenders? There are a lot of interesting numbers and possibilities and I will get into those next week. For now, here’s this week’s food review and there are two, based on their similar flavor and results.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Clif Bloks Salted Watermelon: These advertise “2X Sodium” and you can taste it. It doesn’t completely block out the watermelon, but it dwarfs it. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing if you like salt. From an energy standpoint, these seemed pretty good. I felt very strong through my run. However, it was borderline on my most important criteria which is GI amenability. While I’m not sure if they’re fully to blame for the mild discomfort I felt, I’m not sure where else I would point. As I’ve mentioned, different products affect people in all kinds of various ways so I’m sure this is a good one for some people, but I will be steering clear of it in the future.
Gu Salted Watermelon: This tastes exactly like salted watermelon. Luckily, I’m not a big fan of salted watermelon because I didn’t feel much of a boost at all. And, while I didn’t experience the same intensity of GI effects as the Clif Bloks Salted Watermelon, they weren’t absent either.
Maybe it’s just a salted watermelon thing.
References Used:
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2019/04/lawrence-cherono-outkicks-lelisa-desisa-to-win-2019-boston-marathon-americans-scott-fauble-jared-ward-run-209/
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2019/04/jordan-hasay-sends-message-with-3rd-place-finish-at-2019-boston-marathon-but-the-best-may-be-yet-to-come/
https://www.virginmoneylondonmarathon.com/en-gb/event-info/spectator-info/elite-fields/2019-elite-mens-field/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lelisa_Desisa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilson_Kipsang_Kiprotich
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge
Boston countdown… 4/11/2019
LetsRun.com’s Boston predictions for the men’s and women’s races came out today. They basically matched mine from last week’s post, with the exception that I covered the top couple of overall likely winners and the likelihood of repeat champions while their articles included additional athletes and data. This suggests that so far, nothing has developed in the field to radically alter expectations for Monday’s race. The weather forecast is a little dicey though as of this morning, the high for Boston is predicted to be in the upper 50s so even if it’s wet, it should be better than last year.
They also point out that predicting Boston (and I would say any marathon) is difficult. You’re taking lots of data and making educated guesses but a few things can interfere. You don’t know exactly how the individuals prepared and you don’t know exactly how they’re feeling or will react to the race and its conditions. Also, as an individual endurance sport, there are no teammates to counteract a mediocre or poor performance and there are no timeouts or halftimes to adjust tactics and reevaluate.
Part of this is to couch predictions but it’s also a fact of the sporting world. Odds exist for a reason and typically events go according to the odds. Of course, sports involve humans who, as we know, can do interesting things to the odds.
We’ll know soon who wins the 2019 edition of the Boston Marathon. Next week will be a short recap of Boston followed by an early preview of London, whose field is loaded. While Kipchoge should be heavily favored, there are plenty of compelling storylines. But, I said I’d wait for London until next week. In the meantime, here are a couple of food reviews.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race):
Gatorade Blackberry Wave: This is a very light tasting beverage and part of their “Flow” line. I used it before a hard six-mile run and I was impressed with how it worked. At no point did I feel any effects of having consumed liquids right before departing. On the flip side, I’m not sure it would be as powerful as a recovery beverage but for pre and in-workout, it was excellent.
Honey Stinger Organic Cracker n’ Nut Butter Snack Bar Peanut Butter Filled, Covered in Milk Chocolate, Plus Sea Salt: The name of this thing is will rival the length of the review. The crackers, located between the chocolate and peanut butter make it a little messy, and the peanut butter is a harder texture, similar to the interior of a Butterfinger. This wouldn’t be a problem out on the trails or roads. However, it would be difficult to eat while in motion. It’s a mouthful and is not designed to be swallowed quickly. It was excellent as a pre-race food and if you were doing an ultra and stopping for a few moments, it would be good solid food to take down. It tasted like you would expect these ingredients to taste when mixed together.
Reference used:
https://weather.com/
Marathon Month… 4/4/2019
April is a huge month for the marathon with Boston and London hosting their races. Message boards are already heating up for London and Boston also has some intrigue. That one is run on April 15th and London is on April 28th.
An ice-water torrential downpour drenched Boston during last year’s race. The drop-out rate for the elite athletes was staggering and out of this soggy mess, two unexpected winners emerged, Yuki Kawauchi on the men’s side and Desiree Linden on the women’s. Linden had finished second in the 2011 event so her win was not a complete surprise. Kawauchi’s was. While he had run under 2:10, he was nowhere near some of the best times of the other competitors.
Even if the conditions are equally brutal this year, don’t look for repeat winners. This is not to knock their accomplishments last year. They triumphed in terrible conditions. But, the weather clearly played a large role. On the men’s side, while Kawauchi had the lead early and was part of the lead pack during the race, Geoffrey Kirui of Kenya took the lead later in the race and at one point, his gap was so big on the rest of the field that it looked like no one could catch him. But, the conditions overcame him and Kawauchi took the lead for good within two miles of the end of the race. Linden took and held the lead a few miles earlier than Kawauchi, but the other contenders lagged further and further behind her. Given a similar situation this year, all of the elite athletes will be better prepared. The chances of the conditions being that awful again? Very slim. In better conditions, it’s unlikely Kawauchi would have won and Linden’s chances would have been greatly reduced.
Looking at 2019, Kawauchi’s personal best for the marathon ranks sixteenth among the elite athlete entrants and some of their times are several minutes faster than his. There are other marathon champions in there including Lelisa Desisa, who has won two Bostons and one New York, and participated in Nike’s Breaking 2 project. Many eyes will be on Kawauchi, but Desisa recently posted a 60:36 half marathon and Kirui ran a 2:06:45 at Chicago. These are not world records but for comparison, Kawauchi has already run two marathons this year in 2:13:41 and 2:09:21. Not only does that suggest more muscle fatigue but given the number of men who have posted in the 2:04 range, plus the presence of Kirui who won in 2017 and nearly won last year, and Desisa who is still running in top form, I would bet one of them will take it. On the women’s side, Linden’s time actually ranks ninth among the elite athletes and she has indicated that she will be making adjustments to go for the win again. Will she do it? Probably not.
Worknesh Degefa posted a 2:17:41 at Dubai in January. It’s a fast turnaround from that to Boston, but she clearly has marathon speed. Meskerem Assefa set a course record at Frankfurt this past fall and though her time was a few minutes behind Degefa’s, they’re both quick. Linden has been focused on Boston and on the surface, it appears that she would have a better chance at repeating than Kawachi. However, her competition will be tough.
Boston always carries interesting story lines but following the last two years of unpleasant weather (in 2017 it was hot by marathon standards) if conditions are decent this year, the race is set up with compelling plot lines. Even if the weather takes another turn for the unpleasant, it will be interesting to see how the athletes strategize within that and who emerges as the victors.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Gu (Roctane Line) Blueberry Pomegranate: The flavor emphasis is on the blueberry with this gel though there’s a hint of pomegranate. I include my disclaimer for a few reasons including that some of these products may work well for others but not for me and vice versa. This gel didn’t agree with me. While I finished out my run just fine, I was a tad uncomfortable and it was fortunate that it was a casual running day. Since GI amenability is my number one criteria, I won’t be going back for more of these.
References Used:
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes
https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a26963432/desiree-linden-2019-boston-marathon/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuki_Kawauchi
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/04/desi-linden-wins-2018-boston-marathon-ends-american-womens-33-year-winless-streak/
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/04/peoples-marathoner-yuki-kawauchi-wins-2018-boston-marathon/
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-marathon/2017/04/17/geoffrey-kirui-wins-2017-boston-marathon-mens-race
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/04/17/boston-marathon-weather-heat-high-temperature/
Spring marathon countdowns…* 2/7/2019
The Dubai Marathon is in the books and produced the fastest ever dubut on the men’s side, 2:03:34. On the women’s side, two runners finished in under 2:18, the 3rd and 4th fastest times of all time. One of the pre-race men’s favorites, Guye Adola, DNF’d around 27km. What does this mean for these runners’ futures? That’s more difficult to say. Historically, Dubai has not been a reliable predictor of future success. No one has been able to put a finger on it but the numbers are there. That being said, these are runners that are on people’s radars and they will have opportunities to race at high-level marathons this coming fall. (It’s unlikely they would race another spring marathon. Even the April dates for Boston and London are a fast turnaround in terms of recovery and training.)
Kenenisa Bekele confirmed he will race the Tokyo Marathon, one of the six world majors, on March 3rd. This race has attracted top talent in the past. As mentioned in a prior post, Bekele has had some phenomenal marathon performances (Paris 2014, Berlin 2016) but has also had some DNFs. For the past several years, the question has been whether he’ll show up to his marathons 100% healthy and ready to race. If he is, he has the ability to push the field towards a fast finish. Besides him, there are four other runners confirmed for the race who have run under 2:05 for the distance.
In the meantime, London just added Wilson Kipsang to an already loaded field. Kipsang set the then-world record in 2013 at Berlin. He’s had an outstanding career since then, including multiple major wins, but two things have pushed him out of the limelight. In 2014, Kipsang’s world record was broken by Dennis Kimetto and that was also the year that Eliud Kipchoge started his dominance at 26.2. But, Kipsang is still running well and his addition to the London field adds excitement to an already spectacular field.
As fans, we just have to be patient and wait for the start…
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Hammer Gel Nocciola: This was more specifically defined as “Chocolate-Hazelnut” and it was definitely a combination of those flavors. While I’m not a fan of hazelnut, it seemed that people who are would like this product. I didn’t have high hopes for great speed on the workout where I tried this but it ended up being a pretty good one, so it did serve its main purpose.
References used:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2019/01/marathon-madness-in-dubai-getaneh-molla-runs-20334-debut-record-ruth-chepngetich-21708-worknesh-degefa-21734-move-to-3-4-on-all-time-list/
https://www.iaaf.org/news/news/tokyo-marathon-2019-elite-field
https://www.iaaf.org/news/report/paris-marathon-kenenisa-bekele-debut-2014-rep
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenenisa_Bekele
https://www.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=news&news_id=558142
https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20819227/dennis-kimetto-breaks-world-record-at-berlin-marathon/
https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20823752/eliud-kipchoge-wins-chicago-marathon-with-late-race-surge/
*This post erroneously stated that the Tokyo Marathon would be later this month, referring to late February. It has been corrected to show the accurate date of March 3rd.
Ultra runner speed and Dubai… 1/24/2019
These are two short bits on a couple of race world items.
In an earlier post when I wrote about following the world of ultramarathons, I emphasized that it’s different from other forms of running competition. Many of the standards and rules for training and preparation for the marathon and shorter races don’t apply to ultras. An area I didn’t discuss is that the top runners in the ultra world are fast. This may seem like a “duh” statement but it seems that reactions to the idea of people running ultras are often based on being primarily impressed by the distance they cover, not the speed. This is more than fair and earned; moving on your own power through 50 or 100 miles or more takes much mental and physical training, stamina, patience, and perseverance. The finishing times may seem less consequential, except for the fact that people are competing for an amount of time that makes a marathon seem short.
Jim Walmsley set the course record at the Western States 100, one of the more iconic ultras, this past summer with a time of 14 hours and 30 minutes. This translates to a per-mile pace of 8 minutes and 42 seconds. Last weekend, Walmsley qualified for the US Olympic Marathon trials by completing the Houston Half Marathon in 64 minutes. This is a per mile pace of 4 minutes, 53 seconds. By all accounts, he was preparing for the race so it’s not like he just woke up last week and decided to make the attempt. Still, road racing is not his focus and he went out and ran a trials-qualifying time, which is fast.
These top ultra athletes don’t only have the ability to grind out long distances at a better pace than their competitors, they also have some serious leg speed.
The Dubai Marathon starts in a matter of hours. The course at Dubai is interesting as it features very few turns. While this may not matter in terms of speed (sharp curves and turns can slow runners down), it does matter in terms of distance. The fewer turns there are, the fewer places there are where the athletes have to focus on running strategically in order to not add unnecessary distance to their races. Basically, they have a better chance at being closer to a perfect 26.2 miles.
There are a couple of interesting storylines. Guye Adola, who ran the fastest ever debut marathon (2:03:46) will be competing. Tadesse Abraham also will be running and he has said his goal is to break Mo Farah’s European Record of 2:05:11. He’ll have to lower his own best from 2:06:40 but if Adola is healthy and runs well and they can set a solid pace early on, it may be within reach. Depending on what Adola and the other elite runners do and how the other top marathoners perform this spring, it may set up a very fast and compelling field for Berlin this coming fall.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Gatorade Lemonade: This tastes almost identical to the classic Lemon-Lime flavor so if you like one of these but only see the other on the shelf, you won’t be disappointed with either type. The flavor is good. I used it before a tempo run as well as at a couple of red lights at intersections during the run. It didn’t sit heavy on the stomach and I felt good the whole way, both from an energy and a hydration standpoint.
References used:
https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a25980327/jim-walmsley-olympic-marathon-qualified-houston-half-marathon/
http://www.dubaimarathon.org/news/red-hot-field-set-for-standard-chartered-dubai-marathon/
http://www.dubaimarathon.org/news/abraham-has-farah-european-record-in-his-sights/
Early analysis…* 1/17/2019
On the heels of my last blog post, Eliud Kipchoge confirmed he would compete in the London Marathon again this coming April. This was expected and the running world is excited as it sets up another race between him and Mo Farah. Kipchoge is the greatest marathoner of all time, Farah is one of the greatest tactical/championship runners of all time.
Kipchoge and Farah have raced against each other multiple times. For shorter distances, the results are mixed. They have competed head-to-head in one marathon, last year’s race at London. Kipchoge was the overall winner in 2:04:17 and Farah was third overall at 2:06:22.
Farah has said he believes that Kipchoge can be beaten though he quickly adds that maybe not at the moment. Kipchoge is too smart to guarantee a victory and points out that in the right race, Farah could beat him. Both are smart, both enjoy big opportunities to race, and both perform well under extraordinary pressure. It’s about the best set-up you can expect in a sporting event.
It’s far too early to make predictions but here are a few points. On the lists of the top twenty-five 5000M and 10000M times of all time, Kipchoge’s name appears on both. Farah’s appears on the 10000M list. Farah’s personal best at the marathon is 2:05:11 at last year’s Chicago event. He believes he can go in the low 2:04 range and possibly in a high 2:03 time. Kipchoge holds the world record of 2:01:39, set at last year’s Berlin Marathon, and he ran the non-qualifying 2:00:25 in 2017.
On numbers alone, Kipchoge has a large advantage, especially since his winning time at last year’s London race, nearly three minutes slower than his official personal best, is in the range of what Farah believes his top possible time is. But there’s another important reason that Kipchoge will likely be favored.
Kipchoge has been remarkably consistent in his training, preparation, and performance. What he does works and he sticks with it. He goes after the race in terms of maximizing his own performance. His stated goal is to always win, but he doesn’t appear to work off of the other runners in his attempts to do so. At last year’s London race, the forecast was warm and not ideal for world record conditions. He could have run tactically from the beginning, hanging with the lead pack and then surging at key times, but he still gave the world record a shot. When it became clear that the world record was out of reach, he ran at a pace that would win the race. He knows his capabilities, he knows how his body is responding, and he performs accordingly.
Farah works the field tactically to win the race. His winning time for the 5000M at the 2012 Olympics was 13:41 and at the 2016 Olympics it was 13:03. The weather in 2012 was in the 70s with less than 50% humidity and the weather in 2016 was in the 70s with a little over 50% humidity. In theory that would not account for a large time difference, yet it was 38 seconds which is a monster amount at that distance. Farah is fast enough and has a remarkable ability to work off the other runners, surge at the proper time, and then finish with a strong kick. He doesn’t win them all, but he wins a bunch, especially at the championship level. It takes a lot of confidence (and supreme running ability) to know you can go with this strategy.
Farah could win if he was able to simply work off of the lead pack but since Kipchoge runs his own race, I find it highly unlikely that he will allow Farah, or any other runner, to influence him. At some point Kipchoge will slow down but he’s still talking about lowering the world record or going under two hours. With his awareness of his capabilities, I don’t view that as brash talk but as measured analysis. If Mo Farah is able to hang with Kipchoge through miles 23 or 24, it could set up an interesting finish. However, in this way-too-early-prediction-based-on-history-alone, I would argue that Kipchoge is too disciplined to get distracted by the pack and still too fast for people to hang on.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Honey Stinger Ginsting Gel. Taste on this one was “eh” for me and I’m glad I only purchased one packet. It was fine in terms of energy. Were it being handed out at a race, I’d be fine using it, but I’d also be looking for a good lunch or dinner place afterwards to wipe out the flavor.
References used:
https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/mo-farah-can-beat-me-at-the-2019-london-marathon-says-eliud-kipchoge-a4039571.html
https://www.athleticsweekly.com/blog/why-mo-farah-can-beat-eliud-kipchoge-1039920024/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5000_metres
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10,000_metres
https://www.olympic.org/athletics
https://www.wunderground.com/
*Original post edited to include “References used” and this note acknowledging the change.
78 seconds faster, now what? 9/20/2018
The men’s world marathon record didn’t just fall on Sunday at Berlin, it plummeted. Eliud Kipchoge lowered the mark of 2:02:57 by 78 seconds to 2:01:39 (Kipchoge world record source). How did he accomplish this?
He had a strategy for the race of staying at a 2:02 pace and he stuck to it. The temperatures stayed cooler than originally forecast, which was a boost. Kipchoge’s pacers didn’t work out quite the way he planned and he ran most of the second half of the race alone. Not to worry, the first half he ran in 61:06 and he then dropped a negative split on the second half in 60:33 (Kipchoge world record source). Negative splits are not easy. Kipchoge’s came from discipline and his determination to get the world record. It helps illustrate why he is so good. He was far enough ahead of the other runners that he could have backed off and taken home the win, but he knew what was possible and went for it.
So how does this record stack up historically? Dropping that much time off of a world record is huge, and it hadn’t been lowered by that margin in 50 years. Given that shaving time off a record gets more difficult as the record gets faster, this is exceptional (Kipchoge world record source).
What does this mean going forward? That’s more difficult to say. On the same day and in the exact same conditions and in the exact same race, Kipchoge’s next closest competitors were over four minutes behind him. For a professional marathon, that’s an obscenely large gap. The claims that this marathon record could stand for decades may not be hyperbole because there was a lot of talent at this race, but no one could even get close to Kipchoge (Kipchoge world record source). This is also true of the Breaking 2 project (Breaking 2 source).
On the other hand, sometimes a world record proves to other runners that certain times are possible. When Haile Gebrselassie dropped the 5000M world record by 10 seconds (which is a monster drop at that distance), he and Daniel Komen went back and forth over the following couple of years lowering the record by small margins (Gebrselassie source). Now that other experienced and up-and-coming marathoners know that sub-2:02 and these kinds of splits are possible, it changes the approach to a race.
Yet on a third hand, because the 2:00 barrier has been in everyone’s sights for several years now, while no legitimate major marathon contender has planned to go out at that pace that I’m aware of (except, obviously, for Breaking 2), running in the mid to high 4:30s has certainly been under consideration.
Kipchoge’s pacers are excellent runners in their own right, yet they did not stay with him as long as planned. This shows two things: just how elite Kipchoge is and how difficult it is to run at that world record pace even for part of a marathon (Kipchoge world record source).
Kipchoge came agonizingly close to the world record in the 2016 London Marathon and looked strong at the end. Unfortunately, other factors ultimately prevented it (London Marathon source). That, plus his performance at Breaking 2, reinforced that he was capable of the world record but things just hadn’t lined up the right way. The world record requires a phenomenal runner, ideal training leading up to the race (no injuries), ideal conditions for the race, and of course the runner having an excellent race.
If someone else were to challenge this time in the next few years, who would it be? Let’s consider Kenenisa Bekele, who has the third fastest ratified marathon time of all time at 2:03:03, as a contender (Bekele source). However, he has been inconsistent in his marathon performances. Also, he is 36 and though he could continue to have many good races, he’s been racing for a long time and mid-30s is where many professional athletes start to consider retirement. Bekele has the leg speed but with his uneven performances it’s difficult to make a solid case that he would be the one to seriously challenge Kipchoge’s time, even though he’s the most logical one. A few other runners have posted times in the 2:03s, but no one has demonstrated consistency at a high level like Kipchoge (Kipchoge world record source).
The other possibility is a current 5000M/10000M runner who moves up to the marathon. Prior to dominating the world at the marathon distance, Kipchoge posted 5000M and 10000M times that rank in the top 25 of all time. Thus, the next person to push or break the record may be someone who hasn’t run a marathon yet.
Only one–that’s right, one–other runner has ever beaten Kipchoge head-to-head in a marathon and it was Wilson Kipsang in 2013 when he set the world record (Kipsang world record source). Among the world’s best marathoners, Kipchoge is head and shoulder above them and barring another barely believable race, there’s no strong evidence that someone will realistically challenge him or his time in the near future.
The other question going forward is what Kipchoge will do next and how well he’ll do it. He’s 33 and it appears there’s nothing that will keep him from running at this level for some time. Bernard Lagat has been running professionally for years and though he hasn’t dominated, he is still pro and still very good. In fact, he’ll make his marathon debut at New York this fall at the age of 43 (Lagat source). It’s hard to say whether Kipchoge will enjoy the same longevity on the road as Lagat but one thing is almost certainly true. Kipchoge is known to be extraordinarily disciplined with his approach to running and the sport. Most runners are disciplined, but I use extraordinary in the truest sense of the word. He will maximize his ability to compete with his intelligent and thorough training and recovery techniques. He won’t burn himself out by pushing past his limits or going too gung-ho and being reckless in training.
In the meantime, it’s exciting to watch someone who is so phenomenal, both tactically and time-wise, at this sport.
Next time, my fifth and final post on how to follow running as a spectator and I will be covering ultramarathons. Safety will be coupled with a Chicago Marathon preview the following week…
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Jelly Belly Sport Beans Fruit Punch Flavor. I’m not kidding. Jelly Belly makes a running nutrition product and it tastes awesome. I don’t know how (or whether) they’re different from traditional Jelly Bellys, but the fruit punch flavor was outstanding. To be honest, I felt pretty normal on my run. I had run the night before so it’s possible that these got me feeling normal as opposed to tired, but they didn’t dazzle me with their energy. Still, the flavor was, as mentioned, excellent. I would definitely carry these on a longer run if I thought I might need a break from gels. If nothing else, it’s like digging into the jelly belly bowl at Easter.
Sources used:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/09/greatest-ever-20139-eliud-kipchoge-crushes-world-record-win-2018-berlin-marathon/
https://www.flotrack.org/articles/5064882-eliud-kipchoge-runs-20025-at-nikes-breaking2-event
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haile_Gebrselassie
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/apr/24/london-marathon-2016-eliud-kipchoge-jemima-sumgong
https://www.iaaf.org/news/report/wilson-kipsang-sets-world-record-of-20323-in
https://www.iaaf.org/news/report/kenenisa-bekele-berlin-marathon-2016
https://www.si.com/edge/2018/08/23/bernard-lagat-new-york-city-marathon-debut
Berlin cometh… 9/13/2018
The Berlin Marathon is this coming Sunday. Eliud Kipchoge will chase the world record once again. His primary opponent, besides the clock, is expected to be Wilson Kipsang, who once held the world record in the marathon (Berlin source). Right now, the weather in Berlin is forecast to be in the low seventies which is, unfortunately, a bit warm when it comes to world record attempts (Weather source).
Will Kipchoge break the record? If the temperatures stay cool and can hold off on topping seventy before the end of the race, maybe. However, temperatures in the fifties are typically better for world record efforts.
One bigger question looming in people’s minds is when the 2:00 marathon barrier will fall, or whether a human is capable of breaking it. When Kipchoge ran the Breaking 2 project marathon 18 months ago, he posted a 2:00:25. This doesn’t count as a world record for a few reasons. Having a pace car and the rotating pace runners helped him and those are among the official reasons (Breaking 2 source). However, one of the biggest advantages Kipchoge had was in not having to run one step over 26.2 miles.
On a world record marathon course, the shortest possible distance that someone can run is 26.2 miles. In most marathons, runners will have to veer off towards aid stations to grab their water bottles. And, though they are well trained enough to run the shortest distance possible on the course, it’s not guaranteed that in addition to grabbing water bottles, they won’t move to one side or the other to gain position or go around someone. On Sunday, all the runners will likely run slightly more than 26.2 miles.
Kipchoge is not only considered the best contemporary marathoner out there, but he is also extraordinarily disciplined. If he was unable to break 2:00 in optimal weather and on the most precise course possible and with a pace car going exactly the speed he needed, then it may be that no runner can currently do it.
However, occasionally we see ridiculously good performances. In 2003, Paula Radcliffe set the current women’s world marathon record of 2:15:25 (Radcliffe source). Since that time, no one else has even come close; the second best time is 96 seconds off of that (Keitany source). For comparison, the men’s world record by Dennis Kimetto is 2:02:57 and the second best time is 2:02:03, just a six second separation (Kimetto source; Bekele source). Radcliffe was, undoubtedly, a phenomenal runner. However, during her career she was not routinely dominating every race or posting multiple inexplicable world records. People have been unable to explain just how she was able to throw down a time so fast that 15 years later, no one has even touched it. 96 seconds may sound close but at the speed at which Radcliffe is running, she would have been more than a quarter mile ahead of the second-fastest official time (Radcliffe source).
I hypothesize, and unfortunately there’s no way to prove it, that in some instances, an athlete has the most ideal race of their life at an ideal time. In 1996, an unknown runner named Jenny Spangler came out and shocked everyone by winning the US Olympic Marathon trials (Spangler source). She was a talented runner and good enough to qualify for the trials but was not on anyone’s short list to be in contention. It’s possible everything just clicked at the right time that day, and in my mind it’s possible that Radcliffe had a similar experience.
Which brings me back to the sub-2 possibility. Will it happen soon? If it does, I think it will be due to a highly talented runner having the most ideal race of their life. In case you’re curious, Kimetto was nearly three quarters of a mile off of a sub-two hours finish when he set the current world record.
In the meantime, back to Berlin on Sunday. If Kipchoge’s in shape and injury-free, the only other wild cards are the weather and any unusual moves by the pacers. I’ve heard that some African runners prefer warm weather but preferences aside, the human body will perform better at certain temperatures and low to mid seventies historically has not been a range where the world records for distance races are set. For pacers, sometimes they go out way too fast, and sometimes they go out too slow. While there is time to make up for a slow start in the marathon, or even to back off from a fast start, having to do either is difficult (Kipchoge source). If you’re curious about this, try the following. On a five to ten-mile distance run, throw in a long, hard surge, say a quarter mile to a half mile. It can really affect the rest of your run. Conversely, on a the same length run on a different day, go out way faster than your planned pace and hold it for a while, say half a mile. It can make the rest of your run very tough. The best-run races when aiming for a specific time, except for the finish where you give everything you’ve got for the final quarter mile or so, are run at an even pace. Veering off of that pace makes the rest of the race exponentially more difficult.
If the weather forecast holds, I predict that Kipchoge will win the race but is unlikely to get the world record. The unfortunate part for Kipchoge is that the biggest impediment on Sunday would be the weather, and in spite of all his disciplined training and preparation, there’s not much to do about that.
Enjoy the race. A recap next time. Also, I would do part five of the series on following running as a spectator, but I will keep that as it’s own post. And, a few incidents on the trail have led me to write up a safety-while-running post, which will appear with the recap.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): Gu Tastefully Nude: This gel is supposed to be flavorless. It’s not. There is a slight sweetness in there and I can’t pinpoint it. However, I emphasize the word “slight” because it is there more as an afterthought and if you don’t like the other flavors out there, this is a good alternative. There is caffeine if you want that. The day I tested it I ran around lunchtime and my body was ready for lunch. The gel didn’t fill me up by any means but I did make it through the 4.5 mile run better than I would have on an empty stomach.
Sources used:
https://www.bmw-berlin-marathon.com/en/news-and-media/news/2018/06/11/2018-bmw-berlinmarathon-eliud-kipchoges-mission-is-to-break-his-personal-best-.html
https://weather.com/
https://www.flotrack.org/articles/5064882-eliud-kipchoge-runs-20025-at-nikes-breaking2-event
https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20785284/why-paula-radcliffes-marathon-record-has-lasted-so-long/
https://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/39683756
https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20819227/dennis-kimetto-breaks-world-record-at-berlin-marathon/
https://www.iaaf.org/news/report/kenenisa-bekele-berlin-marathon-2016
https://www.runnersworld.com/advanced/a20794521/rt-radio-jenny-spangler-and-the-1996-olympic-trials-marathon/
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/09/eliud-kipchoge-chasing-world-record-berlin-whether-gets-not-control/
Badwater: tough course, tough conditions… 7/26/2018
The photo this week is a close-up of the salt flats just a couple hundred meters west of the Badwater basin marker in Death Valley which I took this past February. I was going to detail my own Death Valley running adventure but that will have to wait for a future post as there’s tons of information to report from this year’s Badwater 135 race. If you missed last week’s post, this is a 135 mile race from Badwater Basin in Death Valley to the Mount Whitney Portals.
Badwater 2018 was, as Badwater usually is, a compelling race. A couple of notes. Everyone who gets admitted to Badwater is an accomplished endurance athlete. Think of it being similar to the Major League Baseball All-Star roster–it’s the best from the best. Also, I don’t get to interview athletes or see the race in person. My analysis below is based solely off of the posted splits and results. Runners thrive and fall back for any number of reasons and I can tell you from my own racing experience that weird stuff happens on race day in both good and bad ways. And, all statistics and race information are from www.badwater.com.
While past champions and top-tier finishers are competing for the win, new champions and contenders also emerge. Through Furnace Creek, past winners Pete Kostelnick and Harvey Lewis posted times that put them among the leaders. Michele Graglia (past finisher), Jared Fetterolf (past finisher), Don Reichelt (his first attempt), and Oswaldo Lopez (also a past champion), were anywhere from 5 to 15 minutes behind. By the Panamint Springs station (mile 72), these were the top four runners. By the Darwin time station, mile 90, these four still made up the leaders though Graglia was increasing his lead on the other three. Lopez, in fourth, had made up some time on third place but was further behind Graglia.
By early evening, I noticed a high number of DNFs, or Did not Finish, 25 to be exact. By the end of the 2017, 2016, and 2015 races, there were 20, 13, and 18, respectively. The race had seemed tougher than normal early on based on the times the leaders were posting and this became more apparent as it went along. For example, when Pete Kostelnick set the course record in 2016, his time through Darwin, mile 90, was 14 hours 3 minutes. This year, Graglia’s time through 90 miles was 15 hours 36 minutes. Given the caliber of athletes racing, I would attribute this to particularly harsh conditions.
When Graglia passed through Lone Pine, mile 122, he had a 24 minute lead over Fetterolf and it appeared they were solidly ahead of the next two heading into the final 13 miles. This stretch of Badwater is a long climb which can’t be pleasant after over 100 miles of running through Death Valley. By the end of the race, Graglia won by 42 minutes. He also had a very impressive finish over the final 45 miles and I’ll detail that below.
One thing that speaks to the difficulty of Badwater is that some finishers have gone on to DNF in subsequent races, then bounce back to solid finishes after that. Oswaldo Lopez won in 2011, has had multiple second place finishes including 2015, had a DNF in 2014 and 2017, and placed fourth this year. In 2016, Brenda Guajarado finished second overall but had to drop out in 2017. She was back for the 2018 edition and it was an interesting race.
Guajardo and Pam Smith were within ten minutes of each other through Stovepipe Wells. At Panamint Springs, Guajardo had increased her lead to 66 minutes and through Darwin, it was at 71 minutes. But by Lone Pine Smith was within 31 minutes and by mile 131, the final time station before the finish, she was within 22 minutes. This last 4 mile stretch is a long climb that takes the lead runners about an hour. Guajardo ultimately prevailed, winning by 24 minutes.
How many DNFs this year? 30. That is, unfortunately, a high number. I don’t point this out to dwell on the negative but rather to show just how difficult the race is. Because all of these runners are well-trained endurance athletes who have put in unbelievable time and effort into preparing for this event, even getting in is a testament to their abilities. Finishing Badwater is an incredible accomplishment because no matter the caliber of athlete, it is one tough course with tough conditions.
Last but not least, Graglia’s excellent final stretch. The winning time in 2017 was 24:56:19 by Wataru Iino. Through Darwin, he was at 15:01 compared to Graglia’s 15:36. My assumption was that this year’s winning time would be off of the 2017 time. Given the number of DNFs, this seemed logical; it was a tough year. By Lone Pine, Graglia was at 21:36, compared to Iino’s 21:10, and at mile 131, Graglia’s time was only 3 minutes behind. His finishing time was 24:51:47, around 4:30 faster than Iino’s. Making up 35 minutes and then some over 45 miles on what clearly was a tough year is more than commendable.
Congratulations to all the Badwater finishers.
Running food review of the week: (note–gels, bars, chews, and other items affect everyone differently. Try them on a short run before using them for a key training run or race): After all the numbers above, it’s time for some lighter fare, Gu Toasted Marshmallow. This tasted exactly like toasted marshmallows, which may say more about marshmallows than the food engineers at Gu. I used it for a mid-afternoon run in 90+ temps after eating less than normal for breakfast and lunch. My time was solid and it gave me the extra surge I needed to finish strong. I do recommend this one.
My own Death Valley running adventure next time and, you can have your cake and eat it, too…
-Sources used: badwater.com
Running anecdotes, running food reviews, some race coverage, and more