Olympics countdown…

The Olympics start in just under a week. The 5000M features two heats: a first round from which the finalists will be selected, based on their finishes, for the medal race. The women’s will be run on August 2nd and 5th; the men’s on August 7th and 10th. Note the three-day gap, or one mile per day for recovery.

The first men’s Olympic 5000M race was in 1912 and the winning time was 14:36.6, a full 91 seconds slower than the current Olympic qualifying standard of 13:05, which is ~30 seconds off the world record of 12:35.36. The last three Olympic winning times for the men have been 12:58 (2021); 13:03 (2016); and 13:41 (2012). The Olympic record is 12:57 (2008).

The first women’s Olympic race was run in 1996 and the winning time was 14:59.88. The current Olympic entry standard is 14:52 and the world record is 14:00.21. The last three Olympic winning times have been 14:36 (2021); 14:26 (2016); and 15:04 (2012). The Olympic record is 14:26 (2016).

As you can see, the Olympic races are tactical; it’s absurdly unlikely anyone will go out at a world record pace because they want to strategize maximizing their energy for the final section of the race. It’s a game where each person is considering when to surge to go for the win, whether they can hold that once they’ve made the call, and/or whether someone behind them has an even stronger and faster kick (ie final sprint) to catch them. It’s a subject I’ve mentioned in prior posts and while it may seem a little odd to someone unfamiliar with the sport, it’s how it works.

For the purposes of the Olympics (and world championships) it’s a byproduct of the distance races–for the 800M and shorter, there’s really no choice but to go all out so the likelihood of world records at the Olympics is higher. In 2012, if someone wasn’t familiar with the 5000M but decided to watch it, they may have checked the world record (at the time it was 12:37) and wondered why the winning time for the Olympics was 20 seconds per-mile slower.

It’s a good reminder that if you check out the Olympic 5000M, keep in mind that it’s all tactics and that can be fascinating. Will a countries’ runners work together to let one of them rabbit and try to draw out other racers early? Will someone push early knowing others aren’t likely to chase them, and then be able to hold for the win? We’ll know soon.

Sources used:

https://olympics.com/en/news/athletics-track-combined-events-at-paris-2024-the-entry-standards

https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/schedule/athletics?day=31-july

https://www.usatf.org/events/2024/2024-u-s-olympic-team-trials-%E2%80%94-track-field/qualifying-information

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5000_metres

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_1912_Summer_Olympics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_2012_Summer_Olympics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_2016_Summer_Olympics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics

https://worldathletics.org/records/by-category/olympic-games-records