Over the past several months, efforts have been made to restart many sports and athletic events and there have been significant changes within most of them. Even early on during the pandemic, it seemed likely that some running events would still be held. There were still many questions, such as who would appear and how the events would look, considering that training routines and travel were significantly impacted.
A few weeks ago, Joshua Cheptegei broke the 5000M world record in a time of 12:35, knocking nearly two full seconds off the previous mark that was held by Keninisa Bekele for sixteen years. With that plus two other events over the next week, we may actually witness a significant shaping of running history in spite of the turbulence around us.
The London Marathon is hosting an elite-only race this coming Sunday, October 4th, featuring a handful of invited athletes who will compete on a roughly 2-kilometer course in a contained biosphere in St. James’ Park. London assembled a stunning field including Eliud Kipchoge, Kenenisa Bekele, and Mosinet Geremew on the men’s side, and Brigid Kosgei, Ruth Chepngetich, and Vivian Cheruiyot for the women. How their training over the last several months has been changed due to the pandemic will impact how the race plays out. I wouldn’t currently bet against Kipchoge in the marathon but he loves crowds, who won’t be present, and if his preparation hasn’t been exactly as he would like, that may be a factor. Bekele has been all over the place in terms of how his preparation matches his performance, but I would see this kind of scenario possibly benefitting him. With it being a race with many laps, where he has excelled, and with the event being a bit unorthodox, that may shake things up in a way that works for him. Geremew made a valiant effort at London in 2019 and though he was 18 seconds behind Kipchoge, that’s close enough to consider making another run at the win. I would still predict a Kipchoge victory, but these unusual circumstances make predictions a little less solid.
Last fall, Kosgei broke the women’s world marathon record in jaw-dropping fashion, her time of 2:14:04 knocking nearly ninety seconds off the previous mark of 2:15:25. (On a tangential note, she would have qualified for the men’s US Olympic trials with nearly four minutes to spare.) Almost equally noteworthy is that the previous mark was over ninety seconds faster than the next fastest woman’s time of 2:17:01. Cheruiyot’s accomplishments are many, including four Olympic medals, and Chepngetich is the current world champion with a personal best of 2:18:08. While times alone would point to Kosgei dominating, maybe she simply showed what was possible.
In earlier posts, I’ve discussed the data and arguments over who the GOAT is in men’s distance running. I’ve also hypothesized that Joshua Cheptegei could enter that conversation. The three primary distances when discussing the GOAT are the 5000M, 10000M, and the marathon. My initial thought on Cheptegei’s contention (though he’s still some ways away from being a solid contender) was his smashing of the 5K road world record in 2020. He also temporarily held the 10K road world record last year. And now, he has the 5000M track record. A couple of weeks ago, it was announced that Cheptegei will make an attempt to break the 10000M world record on the track on October 7th.
With Kipchoge and Bekele both being in the GOAT conversation and competing head-to-head in London, and then Cheptegei making this WR attempt a few days later in Valencia, in a year where we wondered how the professional running scene would look, we potentially have a 96-hour period where the GOAT conversation may be significantly altered. I’ve maintained that if Bekele can break the marathon world record, he would be the GOAT in my book. His marathon resume is not as dominant as Kipchoge’s (no one’s is) but he does have multiple major wins and his accomplishments at the 5000M and 10000M distances are incredible. What if he became only the second person to win at 26.2 against Kipchoge even without setting a new world record? That also affects the conversation.
If Cheptegei sets the 10000M world record on October 7th, he is still not fully a member of the discussion, but he’s definitely got one or two feet in the door. There are a couple of major things missing. He has world championship medals but no Olympic medals. He competed in the 2016 Rio Olympic games, though in all fairness he was only nineteen years old. (While I’m sure he had access to incredible coaching and resources, I think about how I ran when I was nineteen compared to later on and it’s quite different.) Also, he has not yet competed in a marathon, though it’s not reasonable that he would have. Typically runners graduate to that distance later in their careers. All that being said, at only twenty-four years old and with the Olympics potentially being held next year, he could do a couple of things that would build up his resume for the GOAT.
A few months ago, I would have assumed that any GOAT-shaping events would probably be delayed until 2021 but life surprises us in good ways sometimes. It may not have been a year where we get our full offering of running events that we enjoy, but seeing them in adapted ways works for now.
Sources used:
https://letsrun.com
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/13/769917804/kenyan-brigid-kosgei-smashes-womens-world-record-at-chicago-marathon
https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a27244432/eliud-kipchoge-wins-london-marathon-in-2nd-fastest-time-in-history/
https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a33649487/joshua-cheptegei-world-record-strava/
https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a33916287/london-marathon-bubble/
https://www.virginmoneylondonmarathon.com/event-info/spectator-info/elite-fields/index.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon#:~:text=The%20marathon%20is%20a%20long,run%20as%20a%20road%20race.&text=The%20marathon%20can%20be%20completed,with%20a%20run%2Fwalk%20strategy